7 November 2026, 16:30 UTC

Degerfors IF vs Gais Allsvenskan prediction & result

Stora Valla, Degerfors
Referee: A. Ladeback
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Degerfors IF 1-2 Gais.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Degerfors IF, 29% draw, 48% Gais — fair odds of 4.35, 3.45 and 2.08.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gais at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Degerfors IF3%Draw93%Gais4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45'
🔁Samuel Salterout: Lucas Hedlund
⚽Dijan Vukojevic
57'
65'
🔁Oskar Ågrenout: Joackim Aberg
65'
🔁Melvin Anderssonout: Gustav Lundgren
🔁Samba Diataraout: Jesús Hernández
70'
74'
🔁Robin Wendin Thomassonout: Jonas Lindberg
🔁Nasiru Moroout: Sebastian Ohlsson
78'
🔁Noel Milleskogout: Arman Taranis
78'
79'
🔁Rasmus Niklasson Petrovicout: Simon Jørgensen
84'
⚽Joackim Abergassist: Robin Frej
90+2'
⚽Gustav Lundgrenassist: William Milovanovic

Match stats — Degerfors IF vs Gais

41%Possession59%
16Shots16
5On target4
4Corners5
1.75xG1.26

Goals against chances

Degerfors IF1 from 1.75 xGless than the chances were worth
Gais2 from 1.26 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Degerfors IF 5-3-2
  • 38M. IgonenG
  • 6D. SundgrenD
  • 3Nikolai SkusethD
  • 15N. MoroD
  • 4K. KarlssonD
  • 18S. DiataraD
  • 10N. MilleskogM
  • 8B. HusseinM
  • 22N. Girmai NetabayM
  • 14L. FritzsonF
  • 11D. VukojevićF
Substitutes
  • 13M. HamiltonM
  • 17Arman TaranisF
  • 7S. OhlssonD
  • 1W. JakobssonG
  • 28J. HernandezD
  • 23R. DzabicM
  • 20E. BarsoumM
  • 21A. BerissonF
  • 9K. BouteraF
Coach: H. Goitom
Gais 4-3-3
  • 1M. KrasniqiG
  • 6A. WängbergD
  • 4O. ÅgrenD
  • 24F. BeckmanD
  • 5R. ThomassonD
  • 8W. MilovanovicM
  • 12R. FrejM
  • 2M. de BrienneM
  • 16M. AnderssonF
  • 20S. SalterF
  • 11R. NiklassonF
Substitutes
  • 22A. CardaklijaD
  • 27M. BawaM
  • 30A. DidrikssonG
  • 7J. ÅbergM
  • 31C. GraviusM
  • 28L. HedlundF
  • 14S. JørgensenF
  • 25Jonas LindbergM
  • 9G. LundgrenM
Coach: F. Holmberg

Form going into Degerfors IF vs Gais

Degerfors IF

Allsvenskan

  • L1-2away to Djurgardens IF1 November 2026
  • L0-3Vasteras SK FK28 October 2026
  • L0-4away to BK Hacken24 October 2026
  • L1-2Kalmar FF19 October 2026

Gais

Allsvenskan

  • W2-1AIK Stockholm2 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Kalmar FF29 October 2026
  • D1-1IFK Goteborg25 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Orgryte IS18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Degerfors IF did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Degerfors IF conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Degerfors IF had three goals or more.
  • Gais scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Gais conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Gais.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Degerfors IF2855182348-2520
9Gais28117103628+840

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Degerfors IF vs Gais

  • 16 May 2026Gais 1–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
  • 19 July 2025Degerfors IF 0–3 GaisAllsvenskan
  • 13 April 2025Gais 2–0 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
  • 24 February 2024Degerfors IF 2–2 GaisSvenska Cupen
  • 9 February 2023Gais 1–0 Degerfors IFFriendlies Clubs
  • 7 November 2020Degerfors IF 2–1 GaisSuperettan

The result against the call

Gais won 2–1 at Degerfors IF. The model had made a win for Gais its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Dijan Vukojevic 57' for Degerfors IF, Joackim Aberg 84' for Gais, Gustav Lundgren 90+2' for Gais. On expected goals it finished 1.75–1.26.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Degerfors IF a 49.8% chance to finish in the bottom two: 25.3% after a win, 50.1% after a draw, 59.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.0%, 9.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Degerfors IF v Gais has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 26% / 30% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 23% / 29% / 48%: the biggest move is Gais's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Degerfors IF win23%▼ −3
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Gais win48%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.