24 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf 3. Liga prediction & result

Ostseestadion, Rostock
Referee: Lars Erbst
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Hansa Rostock 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Hansa Rostock, 28% draw, 24% Fortuna Düsseldorf — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hansa Rostock at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hansa Rostock4%Draw93%Fortuna Düsseldorf3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
🔁Steven van der Slootout: Filimon Gerezgiher
⚽Andreas Voglsammerassist: Florian-Horst Carstens
44'
45+1'
⚽Anas Slimani
62'
Tim Christopher Oberdorf
63'
Lukas Bornschein
🔁Yannick Michaelisout: Benno Dietze
66'
Benno Dietze
70'
Lukas Wallner
71'
72'
🔁Eric Hottmannout: Fabian Schleusener
72'
🔁Erik Wekesserout: Sascha Risch
🔁Lukas Wallnerout: Maximilian Krauss
75'
🔁Andreas Voglsammerout: Peter Kiedl
85'
🔁Leon Dajakuout: F. Bock
86'
89'
🔁Anas Slimaniout: Jomaine Consbruch
89'
🔁Andreas Müllerout: Yassine Bouchama

Match stats — Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf

61%Possession39%
15Shots6
5On target2
5Corners2

Line-ups

Hansa Rostock 3-4-3
  • 25P. KlewinG
  • 17F. CarstensD
  • 23F. PfanneD
  • 16L. WallnerD
  • 8Ouassim KaradaM
  • 4K. FatkićM
  • 5M. SchusterM
  • 32N. KölleM
  • 41Y. MichaelisF
  • 9A. VoglsammerF
  • 43L. DajakuF
Substitutes
  • 36F. BockM
  • 3F. BohnertD
  • 42B. DietzeM
  • 15A. GürleyenD
  • 29P. KiedlF
  • 27D. KopaczM
  • 35M. KraußM
  • 31J. JantunenG
  • 22L. ReichardtD
Coach: A. Breitenreiter
Fortuna Düsseldorf 4-3-3
  • 22L. LordG
  • 25M. ZimmermannD
  • 15T. OberdorfD
  • 4L. BornscheinD
  • 7E. WekesserD
  • 2S. van der SlootM
  • 38E. ArdenM
  • 8J. HendrixM
  • 6A. MüllerF
  • 9E. HottmannF
  • 34A. SlimaniF
Substitutes
  • 40H. AnhariM
  • 5Y. BouchamaM
  • 14J. ConsbruchM
  • 43Noah EgouliD
  • 23F. GerezgiherF
  • 1L. RießG
  • 28S. RischD
  • 29K. SauckM
  • 24F. SchleusenerF
Coach: J. Langeneke

Form going into Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf

Hansa Rostock

3. Liga

  • L0-2away to Alemannia Aachen17 October 2026
  • L0-2SV Meppen13 October 2026

Fortuna Düsseldorf

3. Liga

  • L1-3FC Saarbrücken17 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Preußen Münster14 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Hansa Rostock135442222019
13Fortuna Düsseldorf134451417-316

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf

  • 25 February 2024Fortuna Dusseldorf 2–0 Hansa Rostock2. Bundesliga
  • 16 September 2023Hansa Rostock 1–3 Fortuna Dusseldorf2. Bundesliga
  • 19 March 2023Hansa Rostock 2–5 Fortuna Dusseldorf2. Bundesliga
  • 10 September 2022Fortuna Dusseldorf 3–1 Hansa Rostock2. Bundesliga
  • 8 April 2022Fortuna Dusseldorf 3–0 Hansa Rostock2. Bundesliga
  • 31 October 2021Hansa Rostock 2–1 Fortuna Dusseldorf2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf

Hansa Rostock

GoalsAssists

  • A. Voglsammer41

Fortuna Düsseldorf

No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Hansa Rostock at 48% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Andreas Voglsammer 44' for Hansa Rostock, Anas Slimani 45+1' for Fortuna Düsseldorf.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hansa Rostock a 17.3% chance to finish in the top three: 19.7% after a win, 14.5% after a draw, 12.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 14.5%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.

For Fortuna Düsseldorf the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 14.0% going in: 10.0% after a win, 14.0% after a draw, 16.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 14.0%.

Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Hansa Rostock v Fortuna Düsseldorf has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 43% / 26% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 48% / 28% / 24%: the biggest move is Fortuna Düsseldorf's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Hansa Rostock win48%▲ +5
  2. Draw28%▲ +2
  3. Fortuna Düsseldorf win24%▼ −7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.