24 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg 3. Liga prediction & result

Audi Sportpark, Ingolstadt
Referee: Lukas Benen
Full time2 – 1

Final score: FC Ingolstadt 04 2-1 MSV Duisburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% FC Ingolstadt 04, 28% draw, 38% MSV Duisburg — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

MSV Duisburg at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Ingolstadt 0494%Draw6%MSV Duisburg0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽Dominik Kotherassist: Lex-Tyger Lobinger
Max Plath
16'
18'
Ben Schlicke
⚽Vinko Sapinaassist: Frederik Carlsen
21'
Georgios Antzoulas
34'
🔁Emre Gulout: Elias Decker
37'
45'
🔁Ben Schlickeout: Florian Krüger
⚽Frederik Carlsenassist: Nishan Velupillay
51'
🔁Lars Lokotschout: Obed Chidindu Ugondu
66'
🔁Nishan Velupillayout: Dennis Kaygin
66'
67'
Martin Ens
73'
🔁Martin Ensout: Can Coskun
73'
🔁Frederik Christensenout: Patrick Sussek
73'
🔁Dominik Kotherout: Peter Remmert
🔁Frederik Carlsenout: Yannick Deichmann
79'
🔁Vinko Sapinaout: Benjamin Kanuric
79'
79'
🔁Rasim Bulicout: Max Besuschkow
Jonas Scholz
90+1'
90+1'
Lex-Tyger Lobinger

Match stats — FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg

34%Possession66%
10Shots13
4On target4
5Corners3

Line-ups

FC Ingolstadt 04 4-1-4-1
  • 47D. KleinG
  • 14Max PlathD
  • 6G. AntzoulasD
  • 15J. ScholzD
  • 19L. RosenlöcherD
  • 34L. FrödeM
  • 5Emre GülM
  • 8F. CarlsenM
  • 41V. ŠapinaM
  • 28N. VelupillayM
  • 13L. LokotschF
Substitutes
  • 17O. UgonduF
  • 16J. GandaF
  • 20Y. DeichmannD
  • 4Elias DeckerD
  • 37B. KanurićM
  • 10D. KayginM
  • 23J. MaljojokiD
  • 1M. PonathG
  • 7Seo Jong-MinF
Coach: A. Beierlorzer
MSV Duisburg 5-4-1
  • 1M. BrauneG
  • 29J. BitterD
  • 4Martin EnsD
  • 5T. FlecksteinD
  • 40B. SchlickeD
  • 3F. ChristensenD
  • 14C. NoßM
  • 6R. BulićM
  • 8A. CasarM
  • 11D. KotherM
  • 9L. LobingerF
Substitutes
  • 27C. CoşkunD
  • 43R. HaddouD
  • 20N. JessenD
  • 26F. KrügerF
  • 39P. RemmertF
  • 19Ramien SafiF
  • 33T. StahlG
  • 17M. BesuschkowM
  • 37P. SussekM
Coach: D. Hirsch

Form going into FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg

FC Ingolstadt 04

3. Liga

  • W1-0Rot-Weiß Essen17 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Waldhof Mannheim14 October 2026

MSV Duisburg

3. Liga

  • D1-1FC Viktoria Köln18 October 2026
  • W4-2away to FC Saarbrücken13 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5FC Ingolstadt 04136341919021
2MSV Duisburg139223318+1529

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg

  • 4 March 2026FC Ingolstadt 04 0–0 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
  • 27 September 2025MSV Duisburg 2–1 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
  • 20 April 2024FC Ingolstadt 04 2–0 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
  • 11 November 2023MSV Duisburg 1–2 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
  • 12 May 2023FC Ingolstadt 04 2–0 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
  • 12 November 2022MSV Duisburg 0–1 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga

Leading scorers: FC Ingolstadt 04 and MSV Duisburg

FC Ingolstadt 04

GoalsAssists

  • O. Ugondu40

MSV Duisburg

GoalsAssists

  • L. Lobinger44
  • P. Remmert40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Ingolstadt 04 beat MSV Duisburg 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for MSV Duisburg at 38% and given a win for FC Ingolstadt 04 34%. The goals: Dominik Kother 4' for MSV Duisburg, Vinko Sapina 21' for FC Ingolstadt 04, Frederik Carlsen 51' for FC Ingolstadt 04. Sent off: Georgios Antzoulas (FC Ingolstadt 04) 34'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Ingolstadt 04 a 7.3% chance to finish in the bottom four: 4.6% after a win, 7.2% after a draw, 9.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.6%, 2.7 points lower than before the match.

For MSV Duisburg the question was the chance to win the league, 51.2% going in: 56.6% after a win, 51.9% after a draw, 45.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.6%, 5.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.