23 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Rustavi vs Dinamo Tbilisi Erovnuli Liga prediction & result

David Petriashvili Stadium, Tbilisi
Referee: G. Kikacheishvili
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Rustavi 0-2 Dinamo Tbilisi.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Rustavi, 32% draw, 31% Dinamo Tbilisi — fair odds of 2.70, 3.13 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rustavi at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rustavi0%Draw1%Dinamo Tbilisi99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Yuta nakano
14'
37'
⚽Nika Ninua
46'
🔁Giorgi Kharaishviliout: Lyes Houri
52'
🔁Mate Vatsadzeout: Algassime Bah
56'
Lyes Houri
🔁kenio jacksonout: solomon kessi
58'
59'
🔁Maxime teixeiraout: tornike kvaratskhelia
60'
Barnes Osei
David Oliveira da Silva
61'
62'
⚽Nika Ninua
66'
🔁Barnes Oseiout: santos leo
🔁David Oliveira da Silvaout: kevin ceijas
68'
🔁Avtandil gujabidzeout: Irakli iakobidze
68'
🔁jeanout: Luka·Parkadze
77'
🔁Yuta nakanoout: Kakhaber Kakashvili
77'

Match stats — Rustavi vs Dinamo Tbilisi

48%Possession52%
5Shots11
2On target4
2Corners10

Line-ups

Rustavi 4-3-3
  • 21P. BeruashviliG
  • 2S. AndghuladzeD
  • 4DavidD
  • 3V. PatsatsiaD
  • 19N. ChikovaniD
  • 22Y. NakanoM
  • 13A. GujabidzeM
  • 40D. UbilavaD
  • 9JeanF
  • 7K. S. AbdulM
  • 10P. OseiF
Substitutes
  • 12T. TarkashviliD
  • 5Kevin William CeijasF
  • 23M. GambošM
  • 24I. IakobidzeD
  • 8K. KakashviliM
  • 27M. KapanadzeD
  • 11S. KessiF
  • 20L. ParkadzeM
  • 35J. RolandG
Coach: G. Tsetsadze
Dinamo Tbilisi 4-3-3
  • 20Lucas FloresG
  • 17P. PsaltisD
  • 27N. KurdićD
  • 4N. UgrekhelidzeM
  • 13M. PourzitídisD
  • 22N. NinuaM
  • 24B. OseiM
  • 8K. KakashviliM
  • 10G. KharaishviliM
  • 11M. VatsadzeF
  • 14M. Do CoutoF
Substitutes
  • 42Saba TartarashviliG
  • 6Leonardo SantosD
  • 18T. KvaratskheliaF
  • 3A. KalandadzeD
  • 33L. HouriM
  • 34M. GbomaduF
  • 7K. DoltmurzievF
  • 12A. BahF
Coach: T. Ketsbaia

Form going into Rustavi vs Dinamo Tbilisi

Rustavi

Erovnuli Liga

  • W1-0away to Torpedo Kutaisi18 October 2026
  • W3-1Dila10 October 2026

Dinamo Tbilisi

Erovnuli Liga

  • W3-1Spaeri18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Dinamo Batumi11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Erovnuli Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Rustavi3216884028+1256
3Dinamo Tbilisi32161065232+2058

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rustavi vs Dinamo Tbilisi

  • 15 August 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 0–3 RustaviErovnuli Liga
  • 11 May 2026Rustavi 2–3 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
  • 11 March 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 0–0 RustaviErovnuli Liga
  • 23 January 2026Rustavi 2–1 Dinamo TbilisiFriendlies Clubs
  • 9 November 2019Rustavi 0–2 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
  • 25 August 2019Dinamo Tbilisi 2–2 RustaviErovnuli Liga

Leading scorers: Rustavi and Dinamo Tbilisi

Rustavi

No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.

Dinamo Tbilisi

GoalsAssists

  • Rodrigo Silva Ramos22

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dinamo Tbilisi won 2–0 at Rustavi. The model had leaned towards a win for Rustavi at 37% and given a win for Dinamo Tbilisi 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Nika Ninua 37' for Dinamo Tbilisi, Nika Ninua 62' for Dinamo Tbilisi.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rustavi a 24.2% chance to finish top of the regular season: 36.7% after a win, 21.6% after a draw, 11.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.8%, 12.4 points lower than before the match.

For Dinamo Tbilisi the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 19.6% going in: 33.4% after a win, 18.0% after a draw, 7.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.4%, 13.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Erovnuli Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rustavi v Dinamo Tbilisi has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 35% / 31% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 37% / 32% / 31%: the biggest move is Dinamo Tbilisi's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Rustavi win37%▲ +2
  2. Draw32%▲ +1
  3. Dinamo Tbilisi win31%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.