7 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Deportes La Serena vs Palestino Primera División prediction & result

Estadio La Portada, La Serena
Referee: Jose Cabero
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Deportes La Serena 1-0 Palestino.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Deportes La Serena, 26% draw, 33% Palestino — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportes La Serena at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Deportes La Serena96%Draw4%Palestino0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
Nicolás Meza
31'
Jose Bizama
36'
Sebastian Gallegos
63'
🔁Ronnie Fernándezout: Gonzalo Tapia
63'
🔁Francisco Montesout: Bryan Carrasco
⚽Diego Rubio
65'
🔁Diego Rubioout: Ángelo Henríquez
65'
🔁Yahir Salazarout: F. Dinamarca
65'
74'
🔁Nicolás Mezaout: Marcelo Eggel
74'
🔁Sebastian Gallegosout: Joe Abrigo
🔁Lucas Alarconout: Matías Pérez
84'
84'
🔁Jason Leónout: Martin Araya
🔁Felipe Chamorroout: Alexander Oroz
84'
🔁Gonzalo Escalanteout: Milovan Joseph Velásquez Blaset
90+4'
90+9'
•Vicente Espinoza

Match stats — Deportes La Serena vs Palestino

54%Possession46%
19Shots14
4On target1
11Corners5
1.61xG0.95

Goals against chances

Deportes La Serena1 from 1.61 xGless than the chances were worth
Palestino0 from 0.95 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportes La Serena 4-2-3-1
  • 31J. TapiaG
  • 34I. RassoD
  • 5L. AlarcónD
  • 33R. DelgadoD
  • 17Y. SalazarD
  • 8G. EscalanteM
  • 6S. DiazM
  • 23M. MarínM
  • 14F. ChamorroM
  • 10J. VargasM
  • 11D. RubioF
Substitutes
  • 26F. DinamarcaD
  • 21B. GutiérrezD
  • 9Á. HenríquezF
  • 28Y. SalazarM
  • 7A. OrozF
  • 3M. PérezD
  • 38I. SáezG
  • 20Milovan VelasquezM
  • 39Gaspar Ignacio Chaura González
Coach: Felipe Gutiérrez
Palestino 4-2-3-1
  • 25S. PérezG
  • 2V. EspinozaD
  • 16J. BizamaD
  • 3E. RocoD
  • 23J. LeónD
  • 5D. GlabyM
  • 8N. MezaM
  • 30I. AlegriaM
  • 18S. GallegosM
  • 15F. MontesM
  • 9R. FernándezF
Substitutes
  • 24D. SalgadoF
  • 1S. SalasG
  • 10A. MartínezM
  • 17M. EggelM
  • 4A. CezaD
  • 20G. TapiaF
  • 7B. CarrascoF
  • 21M. ArayaF
  • 14J. AbrigoM
Coach: G. Farré

Form going into Deportes La Serena vs Palestino

Deportes La Serena

Primera División

  • D0-0away to Huachipato1 November 2026
  • W3-1Concepción24 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Everton de Vina11 October 2026
  • L0-3Universidad de Chile13 September 2026

Palestino

Primera División

  • L0-1away to Concepción2 November 2026
  • D1-1Colo Colo25 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Deportes Limache11 October 2026
  • L2-3Universidad Catolica12 September 2026

What these results say

  • Deportes La Serena failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Deportes La Serena conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Deportes La Serena had three goals or more.
  • Palestino did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Palestino conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Palestino scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Deportes La Serena2791084042-237
7Palestino27115113938+138

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportes La Serena vs Palestino

  • 16 May 2026Palestino 5–1 Deportes La SerenaPrimera División
  • 29 November 2025Deportes La Serena 0–3 PalestinoPrimera División
  • 14 June 2025Palestino 2–1 Deportes La SerenaPrimera División
  • 23 October 2022Palestino 5–0 Deportes La SerenaPrimera División
  • 14 May 2022Deportes La Serena 0–0 PalestinoPrimera División
  • 25 October 2021Palestino 3–3 Deportes La SerenaPrimera División

Leading scorers: Deportes La Serena and Palestino

Deportes La Serena

GoalsAssists

  • J. Vargas87
  • F. Chamorro73

Palestino

GoalsAssists

  • N. Da Silva82

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Deportes La Serena beat Palestino 1–0. The model had made a win for Deportes La Serena its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Diego Rubio 65' for Deportes La Serena. On expected goals it finished 1.61–0.95.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Palestino a 14.6% chance to finish in the top four: 26.8% after a win, 11.4% after a draw, 6.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.0%, 8.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.