San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: San Jose Earthquakes 1-5 Minnesota United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% San Jose Earthquakes, 26% draw, 42% Minnesota United FC — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Minnesota United FC at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC
San Jose Earthquakes
- L0-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy20 August 2026
- L1-3St. Louis City16 August 2026
- L2-4away to FC Cincinnati1 August 2026
- D1-1Los Angeles Galaxy26 July 2026
- L0-4Orlando City SC23 July 2026
Minnesota United FC
- L1-2Atlanta United FC20 August 2026
- D1-1away to Real Salt Lake16 August 2026
- D1-1San Diego2 August 2026
- D0-0Vancouver Whitecaps26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Sporting Kansas City23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 41 |
| 12 | Minnesota United FC | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC
- 29 April 2026San Jose Earthquakes 4–2 Minnesota United FCUS Open Cup
- 13 July 2025Minnesota United FC 4–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 9 March 2025San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 1 September 2024San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 21 July 2024Minnesota United FC 2–0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 1 October 2023Minnesota United FC 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United FC
San Jose Earthquakes
- P. Judd12 goals2 assists
Minnesota United FC
- K. Yeboah13 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.