5 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Inter vs Napoli Serie A prediction & result

Milan
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Inter 3-2 Napoli.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Inter, 27% draw, 22% Napoli — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Inter at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Inter6%Draw92%Napoli2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

35'
Antonio Vergara
🔁Pio Espositoout: Marcus Thuram
45'
🔁Petar Sučićout: Curtis Jones
45'
50'
⚽Matteo Politano
53'
⚽Rasmus Hojlundassist: Giovanni Di Lorenzo
⚽Lautaro Martínezassist: Federico Dimarco
56'
62'
🔁Antonio Vergaraout: Kevin De Bruyne
62'
🔁Matteo Politanoout: David Neres
🔁Federico Dimarcoout: Carlos Augusto
62'
Lautaro Martínez
68'
🔁Piotr Zielińskiout: Hakan Çalhanoğlu
72'
72'
🔁Rasmus Hojlundout: Lorenzo Lucca
77'
Rafael Marin Zamora
🔁Alessandro Bastoniout: Ange-Yoan Bonny
79'
79'
🔁Stanislav Lobotkaout: Billy Gilmour
80'
🔁Alisson Santosout: Benoît Badiashile
⚽Marcus Thuramassist: Carlos Augusto
82'
⚽Lautaro Martínezassist: Manuel Akanji
90+1'

Match stats — Inter vs Napoli

63%Possession37%
29Shots16
8On target7
10Corners5

Line-ups

Inter 3-5-2
  • 1Josep MartínezG
  • 31Y. BisseckD
  • 25M. AkanjiD
  • 95A. BastoniD
  • 17A. DioufM
  • 23N. BarellaM
  • 7P. ZielińskiM
  • 8P. SučićM
  • 32F. DimarcoM
  • 94F. EspositoF
  • 10Lautaro MartínezF
Substitutes
  • 49I. ProvedelG
  • 28B. PavardD
  • 6J. StonesD
  • 5A. StankovićM
  • 14A. BonnyF
  • 20H. ÇalhanoğluM
  • 30Carlos AugustoD
  • 12R. Di GennaroG
  • 21C. JonesM
Coach: C. Chivu
Napoli 4-3-3
  • 1A. MeretG
  • 22G. Di LorenzoD
  • 13Amir RrahmaniD
  • 16Rafa MarínD
  • 37L. SpinazzolaD
  • 99A. Zambo AnguissaM
  • 68S. LobotkaM
  • 26A. VergaraM
  • 21M. PolitanoF
  • 19R. HøjlundF
  • 27Alisson SantosF
Substitutes
  • 17M. OliveraD
  • 32V. Milinković-SavićG
  • 70N. LangF
  • 6B. GilmourM
  • 2C. FavasuliD
  • 11K. De BruyneM
  • 7David NeresF
  • 14N. ContiniG
  • 31S. BeukemaD
Coach: M. Allegri

Form going into Inter vs Napoli

Inter

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Cagliari30 August 2026
  • W4-1Monza22 August 2026

Napoli

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Como30 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Genoa22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Inter119112813+1528
10Napoli114341814+415

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Inter vs Napoli

  • 11 January 2026Inter 2–2 NapoliSerie A
  • 25 October 2025Napoli 3–1 InterSerie A
  • 1 March 2025Napoli 1–1 InterSerie A
  • 10 November 2024Inter 1–1 NapoliSerie A
  • 17 March 2024Inter 1–1 NapoliSerie A

The full Inter vs Napoli record →

Leading scorers: Inter and Napoli

Inter

GoalsAssists

  • M. Thuram62

Napoli

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Inter beat Napoli 3–2. The model had made a win for Inter its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Matteo Politano 50' for Napoli, Rasmus Hojlund 53' for Napoli, Lautaro Martínez 56' for Inter, Marcus Thuram 82' for Inter, Lautaro Martínez 90+1' for Inter.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.