5 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Inter vs Napoli Serie A prediction & result

Milan
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Inter 3-2 Napoli.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Inter, 27% draw, 22% Napoli — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Inter at 51% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Inter6%Draw92%Napoli2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

35'
Antonio Vergara
🔁Pio Espositoout: Marcus Thuram
45'
🔁Petar Sučićout: Curtis Jones
45'
50'
⚽Matteo Politano
53'
⚽Rasmus Hojlundassist: Giovanni Di Lorenzo
⚽Lautaro Martínezassist: Federico Dimarco
56'
62'
🔁Antonio Vergaraout: Kevin De Bruyne
62'
🔁Matteo Politanoout: David Neres
🔁Federico Dimarcoout: Carlos Augusto
62'
Lautaro Martínez
68'
🔁Piotr Zielińskiout: Hakan Çalhanoğlu
72'
72'
🔁Rasmus Hojlundout: Lorenzo Lucca
77'
Rafael Marin Zamora
🔁Alessandro Bastoniout: Ange-Yoan Bonny
79'
79'
🔁Stanislav Lobotkaout: Billy Gilmour
80'
🔁Alisson Santosout: Benoît Badiashile
⚽Marcus Thuramassist: Carlos Augusto
82'
⚽Lautaro Martínezassist: Manuel Akanji
90+1'

Match stats — Inter vs Napoli

63%Possession37%
29Shots16
8On target7
10Corners5

Line-ups

Inter 3-5-2
  • 1Josep MartínezG
  • 31Y. BisseckD
  • 25M. AkanjiD
  • 95A. BastoniD
  • 17A. DioufM
  • 23N. BarellaM
  • 7P. ZielińskiM
  • 8P. SučićM
  • 32F. DimarcoM
  • 94F. EspositoF
  • 10Lautaro MartínezF
Substitutes
  • 49I. ProvedelG
  • 28B. PavardD
  • 6J. StonesD
  • 5A. StankovićM
  • 14A. BonnyF
  • 20H. ÇalhanoğluM
  • 30Carlos AugustoD
  • 12R. Di GennaroG
  • 21C. JonesM
Coach: C. Chivu
Napoli 4-3-3
  • 1A. MeretG
  • 22G. Di LorenzoD
  • 13Amir RrahmaniD
  • 16Rafa MarínD
  • 37L. SpinazzolaD
  • 99A. Zambo AnguissaM
  • 68S. LobotkaM
  • 26A. VergaraM
  • 21M. PolitanoF
  • 19R. HøjlundF
  • 27Alisson SantosF
Substitutes
  • 17M. OliveraD
  • 32V. Milinković-SavićG
  • 70N. LangF
  • 6B. GilmourM
  • 2C. FavasuliD
  • 11K. De BruyneM
  • 7David NeresF
  • 14N. ContiniG
  • 31S. BeukemaD
Coach: M. Allegri

Form going into Inter vs Napoli

Inter

  • W1-0away to Cagliari30 August 2026
  • W4-1Monza22 August 2026

Napoli

  • L1-2Como30 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Genoa22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Inter4400136+712
10Napoli420265+16

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Inter vs Napoli

  • 5 September 2026Inter 3–2 NapoliSerie A
  • 11 January 2026Inter 2–2 NapoliSerie A
  • 25 October 2025Napoli 3–1 InterSerie A
  • 1 March 2025Napoli 1–1 InterSerie A
  • 10 November 2024Inter 1–1 NapoliSerie A
  • 17 March 2024Inter 1–1 NapoliSerie A

Leading scorers: Inter and Napoli

Inter

  • F. Esposito2 goals1 assists
  • M. Thuram2 goals1 assists

Napoli

  • R. Højlund2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.