5 September 2026, 13:00 UTC

Fiorentina vs Torino Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Fiorentina 1-2 Torino.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Fiorentina, 30% draw, 30% Torino — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Fiorentina at 40% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fiorentina0%Draw4%Torino96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Christ Inao Oulaïout: Cher Ndour
24'
40'
🔁Saúl Cocoout: Ardian Ismajli
🔁Franco Mastantuonoout: Wilfried Gnonto
45'
🔁Marco Brescianiniout: Arthur Atta
45'
⚽Mateo Pellegrinoassist: Radu Drăguşin
47'
56'
🔁Niccolo Fortiniout: Nathan Patterson
56'
🔁Alessio Cacciamaniout: Rafik Belghali
70'
🔁Gvidas Gineitisout: Giovanni Simeone
70'
🔁Pietro Comuzzoout: Daniel Bragança
74'
⚽Rolando Mandragoraassist: Eray Cömert
🔁Mateo Pellegrinoout: Beto
76'
🔁Alieu Njieout: Pedro Goncalves
79'
82'
⚽Che Adamsassist: Rafik Belghali

Match stats — Fiorentina vs Torino

40%Possession60%
14Shots7
6On target4
3Corners5

Line-ups

Fiorentina 4-3-3
  • 43David de GeaG
  • 17João MárioD
  • 3R. DrăgușinD
  • 33VieryD
  • 21ValdeD
  • 44N. FagioliM
  • 42C. Inao OulaïM
  • 4M. BrescianiniM
  • 30Franco MastantuonoF
  • 32Mateo PellegrinoF
  • 25A. NjieF
Substitutes
  • 6L. RanieriD
  • 28PoteM
  • 5M. PongračićD
  • 27C. NdourM
  • 19L. LezzeriniG
  • 20Álex JiménezD
  • 29W. GnontoF
  • 2DodôD
  • 53O. ChristensenG
Coach: F. Grosso
Torino 3-1-4-2
  • 20Lucas PerriG
  • 5E. CömertD
  • 23Saúl CocoD
  • 15P. ComuzzoD
  • 8R. MandragoraM
  • 29N. FortiniM
  • 66G. GineitisM
  • 28K. Fitz-JimM
  • 77A. CacciamaniM
  • 19C. AdamsF
  • 10N. VlašićF
Substitutes
  • 7Z. AboukhlalF
  • 45R. BelghaliD
  • 21Daniel BragançaM
  • 91D. ZapataF
  • 63Manuel CarrascosaD
  • 6E. İlkhanM
  • 44A. IsmajliD
  • 17S. KulenovićF
  • 79A. LuongoF
Coach: Ignazio Abate

Form going into Fiorentina vs Torino

Fiorentina

  • L0-3Frosinone29 August 2026
  • L0-4away to AS Roma24 August 2026

Torino

  • L1-2away to Sassuolo29 August 2026
  • L1-2AC Milan23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Fiorentina4103511-63
14Torino410347-33

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fiorentina vs Torino

  • 5 September 2026Fiorentina 1–2 TorinoSerie A
  • 7 February 2026Fiorentina 2–2 TorinoSerie A
  • 31 August 2025Torino 0–0 FiorentinaSerie A
  • 19 January 2025Fiorentina 1–1 TorinoSerie A
  • 3 November 2024Torino 0–1 FiorentinaSerie A
  • 2 March 2024Torino 0–0 FiorentinaSerie A

Leading scorers: Fiorentina and Torino

Fiorentina

  • Franco Mastantuono3 goals
  • Mateo Pellegrino2 goals

Torino

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.