Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: Degerfors IF 1-2 Kalmar FF.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Degerfors IF, 31% draw, 28% Kalmar FF — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Degerfors IF at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 38M. IgonenG
- 6D. SundgrenD
- 2Ahmad FaqaD
- 3Nikolai SkusethD
- 13M. HamiltonD
- 16S. OhlssonD
- 10N. MilleskogM
- 8B. HusseinM
- 22N. Girmai NetabayM
- 17Arman TaranisF
- 11D. VukojevićF
- 9K. BouteraF
- 20E. BarsoumM
- 18S. DiataraD
- 23R. DzabicM
- 14L. FritzsonF
- 1W. JakobssonG
- 15N. MoroD
- 7S. OhlssonD
- 28J. HernandezD
- 1S. BrolinG
- 26M. YlitolvaD
- 39L. SætraD
- 4J. LöfgrenD
- 2V. LarssonD
- 17C. GustafssonM
- 5M. HallbergM
- 10M. SöderbäckM
- 21A. MagashyM
- 24C. SagoeM
- 6V. TyrenF
- 20A. AlmqvistD
- 19E. DallF
- 22T. LauritsenM
- 3S. ØverbyD
- 11K. PaananenF
- 23R. GojaniM
- 25N. ShamounM
- 9M. StoltF
- 30J. KindbergG
Form going into Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF
Degerfors IF
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Mjallby AIF10 October 2026
- L0-1Hammarby FF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sirius14 September 2026
- W2-0Halmstad5 September 2026
- L0-2away to IF Elfsborg29 August 2026
Kalmar FF
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Malmo FF12 October 2026
- L0-5BK Hacken20 September 2026
- L0-1away to IF Elfsborg13 September 2026
- L0-1Djurgardens IF7 September 2026
- L0-1away to Halmstad29 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Degerfors IF had two goals or fewer.
- Degerfors IF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Degerfors IF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kalmar FF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Kalmar FF failed to score in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kalmar FF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 28 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 23 | 48 | -25 | 20 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 28 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 24 | 42 | -18 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF
- 23 May 2026Kalmar FF 2–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 21 October 2023Degerfors IF 1–3 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
- 10 June 2023Kalmar FF 2–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 30 July 2022Degerfors IF 2–1 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
- 17 April 2022Kalmar FF 2–0 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 12 September 2021Kalmar FF 4–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
The result against the call
Kalmar FF won 2–1 at Degerfors IF. The model had leaned towards a win for Degerfors IF at 41% and given a win for Kalmar FF 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Marius Soderback 3' for Kalmar FF, vilmer tyren 17' for Kalmar FF, Nahom Girmai 41' for Degerfors IF. On expected goals it finished 0.96–2.37.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Degerfors IF a 14.1% chance to finish in the bottom two: 4.8% after a win, 15.0% after a draw, 27.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.1%, 13 points higher than before the match.
For Kalmar FF the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 27.0% going in: 11.4% after a win, 25.2% after a draw, 36.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.4%, 15.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Degerfors IF v Kalmar FF has moved
First published on 5 Oct at 38% / 32% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 31% / 28%: the biggest move is Degerfors IF's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Degerfors IF win41%▲ +3
- Draw31%▼ −1
- Kalmar FF win28%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.