25 October 2026, 15:30 UTC

Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas
Referee: Hector Jona
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Nublense 2-1 Coquimbo Unido.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Nublense, 27% draw, 41% Coquimbo Unido — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Coquimbo Unido at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nublense95%Draw5%Coquimbo Unido0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽Luis Riverosassist: Juan Cornejo
⚽Matías Plaza (pen)
38'
44'
Juan Cornejo
45+2'
Cristian Zavala
🔁Felipe Camposout: Diego Sanhueza
45'
47'
Manuel Fernández
Diego Sanhueza
51'
61'
🔁Benjamin Chandiaout: Sebastián Cabrera
61'
🔁Alejandro Camargoout: Salvador Cordero
Jovany Campusano
70'
🔁Esteban Calderónout: Ignacio Jeraldino
71'
🔁Lucas Molina Cantoout: Christian León Mansilla Rocamora
77'
🔁Matías Plazaout: Fernando Ovelar
77'
79'
🔁Cristian Zavalaout: Pablo Roberto Andres Rodriguez Salgado
⚽Diego Sanhuezaassist: Fernando Ovelar
81'
85'
🔁Guido Vadaláout: Lucas Pratto
85'
🔁Juan Cornejoout: Alejandro Azocar
🔁Gabriel Gracianiout: Carlos Salomón
86'
Robinson Manuel Rivera Zúñiga
89'
H. Muñoz
90+1'
90+6'
•Benjamín Gazzolo
Fernando Ovelar
90+9'

Match stats — Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido

46%Possession54%
17Shots9
5On target3
6Corners3
1.65xG0.73

Goals against chances

Nublense2 from 1.65 xGabout what the chances were worth
Coquimbo Unido1 from 0.73 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Nublense 4-1-4-1
  • 1N. PérezG
  • 5F. CamposD
  • 18D. CéspedesD
  • 15S. ValenciaD
  • 14J. CampusanoD
  • 21L. ReyesM
  • 8G. GracianiM
  • 10M. PlazaM
  • 28M. RiveraM
  • 11L. MolinaM
  • 26E. CalderónF
Substitutes
  • 20I. JeraldinoF
  • 25H. MuñozG
  • 7F. OvelarF
  • 9F. RamiF
  • 13D. SaavedraM
  • 3C. SalomónD
  • 16D. SanhuezaD
  • 19I. TapiaM
  • 35C. MansillaM
Coach: Vicente Núñez
Coquimbo Unido 4-2-3-1
  • 13D. SánchezG
  • 17F. SalinasD
  • 2B. GazzoloD
  • 3M. FernándezD
  • 16J. CornejoD
  • 8A. CamargoM
  • 7S. GalaniM
  • 15C. ZavalaM
  • 10G. VadaláM
  • 30B. ChandíaM
  • 27L. RiverosF
Substitutes
  • 23M. ZepedaM
  • 26L. SozaD
  • 18P. RodriguezM
  • 12L. PrattoF
  • 1G. FloresG
  • 14S. CorderoM
  • 28S. CabreraD
  • 11A. AzócarF
  • 31Dixon PereiraF
Coach: Hernán Caputto

Form going into Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido

Nublense

Primera División

  • L0-6away to Universidad de Chile12 October 2026
  • L1-3Everton de Vina12 September 2026

Coquimbo Unido

Primera División

  • W5-2Colo Colo11 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Cobresal12 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Nublense2798103141-1035
6Coquimbo Unido26115103935+438

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido

  • 19 April 2026Coquimbo Unido 1–1 NublensePrimera División
  • 12 September 2025Coquimbo Unido 2–1 NublensePrimera División
  • 21 April 2025Nublense 0–0 Coquimbo UnidoPrimera División
  • 20 July 2024Coquimbo Unido 1–0 NublensePrimera División
  • 17 February 2024Nublense 0–0 Coquimbo UnidoPrimera División
  • 30 September 2023Coquimbo Unido 1–3 NublensePrimera División

Leading scorers: Nublense and Coquimbo Unido

Nublense

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.

Coquimbo Unido

GoalsAssists

  • N. Johansen90

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Nublense beat Coquimbo Unido 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Coquimbo Unido at 41% and given a win for Nublense 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Luis Riveros 13' for Coquimbo Unido, Matías Plaza (penalty) 38' for Nublense, Diego Sanhueza 81' for Nublense. On expected goals it finished 1.65–0.73.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nublense a 3.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 2.7% after a draw, 5.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.

For Coquimbo Unido the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 17.5% going in: 25.8% after a win, 12.2% after a draw, 8.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.3%, 9.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Nublense v Coquimbo Unido has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 32% / 27% / 41%: the biggest move is Coquimbo Unido's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Nublense win32%▼ −7
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Coquimbo Unido win41%▲ +8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.