SV Elversberg vs Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: SV Elversberg 3-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% SV Elversberg, 25% draw, 47% Bayer Leverkusen — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Bayer Leverkusen at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SV Elversberg vs Bayer Leverkusen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 20N. KristofG
- 30J. GyamerahD
- 19L. PinckertD
- 31M. RohrD
- 21L. GuntherD
- 43F. KeidelM
- 8L. PorebaM
- 25L. PetkovM
- 40F. OnyekaM
- 39C. CampbellM
- 42D. Mokwa NtusuF
- 28T. BossG
- 2N. MickelsonD
- 26L. SirchD
- 3F. Le JoncourD
- 6A. CondeM
- 7M. KrattenmacherM
- 10N. DarvichM
- 24L. SchnellbacherM
- 9N. FutkeuF
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 17LucasD
- 5L. BadeD
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 3M. GutierrezD
- 6E. FernandezM
- 24A. GarciaM
- 30I. MazaM
- 10M. TillmanM
- 9A. MoreiraM
- 14P. SchickF
- 28J. BlaswichG
- 2F. MedinaD
- 4J. QuansahD
- 13ArthurD
- 44J. BelocianD
- 7J. HofmannM
- 8R. AndrichM
- 22V. BonifaceF
- 35C. KofaneF
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 13 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SV Elversberg vs Bayer Leverkusen
- 29 October 2024Bayer Leverkusen 3–0 SV ElversbergDFB Pokal
- 30 July 2022SV Elversberg 4–3 Bayer LeverkusenDFB Pokal
Leading scorers: SV Elversberg and Bayer Leverkusen
SV Elversberg
GoalsAssists
- M. Krattenmacher41
Bayer Leverkusen
GoalsAssists
- P. Schick82
- I. Maza33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
SV Elversberg beat Bayer Leverkusen 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Bayer Leverkusen at 47% and given a win for SV Elversberg 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: L. Petkov 8' for SV Elversberg, C. Campbell 9' for SV Elversberg, D. Mokwa Ntusu 46' for SV Elversberg, P. Schick 77' for Bayer Leverkusen, C. Kofane 90' for Bayer Leverkusen. On expected goals it finished 1.12–1.93.