29 August 2026, 13:30 UTC

SV Elversberg vs Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga prediction & result

Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg
Full time3 – 2

Final score: SV Elversberg 3-2 Bayer Leverkusen.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% SV Elversberg, 25% draw, 47% Bayer Leverkusen — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bayer Leverkusen at 47% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SV Elversberg99%Draw1%Bayer Leverkusen0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽L. Petkovassist: F. Onyeka
8'
⚽C. Campbell
9'
Maximilian Rohr
29'
Cole Campbell
41'
⚽D. Mokwa Ntusuassist: L. Petkov
46'
53'
Ibrahim Maza
55'
🔁E. Fernandezout: F. Medina
55'
🔁L. Badeout: J. Quansah
55'
🔁Lucasout: C. Kofane
🔁C. Campbellout: M. Krattenmacher
65'
🔁F. Onyekaout: N. Darvich
65'
65'
🔁M. Tillmanout: J. Hofmann
🔁J. Gyamerahout: L. Sirch
75'
🔁D. Mokwa Ntusuout: L. Schnellbacher
75'
77'
⚽P. Schickassist: I. Maza
78'
Facundo Medina
🔁M. Rohrout: F. Le Joncour
82'
85'
🔁A. Moreiraout: V. Boniface
Nicolas Kristof
89'
90'
⚽C. Kofane

Match stats — SV Elversberg vs Bayer Leverkusen

33%Possession67%
11Shots21
6On target4
4Corners3
1.12xG1.93

Goals against chances

SV Elversberg3 from 1.12 xGmore than the chances were worth
Bayer Leverkusen2 from 1.93 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

SV Elversberg 4-2-3-1
  • 20N. KristofG
  • 30J. GyamerahD
  • 19L. PinckertD
  • 31M. RohrD
  • 21L. GuntherD
  • 43F. KeidelM
  • 8L. PorebaM
  • 25L. PetkovM
  • 40F. OnyekaM
  • 39C. CampbellM
  • 42D. Mokwa NtusuF
Substitutes
  • 28T. BossG
  • 2N. MickelsonD
  • 26L. SirchD
  • 3F. Le JoncourD
  • 6A. CondeM
  • 7M. KrattenmacherM
  • 10N. DarvichM
  • 24L. SchnellbacherM
  • 9N. FutkeuF
Coach: Vincent Wagner
Bayer Leverkusen 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. FlekkenG
  • 17LucasD
  • 5L. BadeD
  • 12E. TapsobaD
  • 3M. GutierrezD
  • 6E. FernandezM
  • 24A. GarciaM
  • 30I. MazaM
  • 10M. TillmanM
  • 9A. MoreiraM
  • 14P. SchickF
Substitutes
  • 28J. BlaswichG
  • 2F. MedinaD
  • 4J. QuansahD
  • 13ArthurD
  • 44J. BelocianD
  • 7J. HofmannM
  • 8R. AndrichM
  • 22V. BonifaceF
  • 35C. KofaneF
Coach: Carles Martinez

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6SV Elversberg320187+16
7Bayer Leverkusen311185+34

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: SV Elversberg vs Bayer Leverkusen

  • 29 August 2026SV Elversberg 3–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
  • 29 October 2024Bayer Leverkusen 3–0 SV ElversbergDFB Pokal
  • 30 July 2022SV Elversberg 4–3 Bayer LeverkusenDFB Pokal

Leading scorers: SV Elversberg and Bayer Leverkusen

SV Elversberg

  • M. Krattenmacher3 goals
  • D. Mokwa2 goals

Bayer Leverkusen

  • P. Schick3 goals1 assists
  • Christian Kofane2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.