Villarreal vs Espanyol La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Villarreal 0-1 Espanyol.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Villarreal, 24% draw, 18% Espanyol — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Villarreal at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Villarreal vs Espanyol
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25P. GulácsiG
- 15S. MouriñoD
- 6Pau NavarroD
- 12Renato VeigaD
- 23Sergi CardonaD
- 17T. BuchananM
- 16C. MaciaM
- 14Santi ComesañaM
- 10Alberto MoleiroM
- 7Gerard MorenoF
- 9G. MikautadzeF
- 20Carlos RomeroD
- 13Rubén GómezG
- 3A. FreemanD
- 27N. El JmiliF
- 1Luíz JúniorG
- 2Logan CostaD
- 21T. OluwaseyiF
- 19N. PépéF
- 22Ayoze PérezF
- 1Ángel FortuñoG
- 23O. El HilaliD
- 16V. DrkušićD
- 6L. CabreraD
- 21Roger HinojoD
- 26Rafel BauzàM
- 8Edu ExpósitoM
- 36Alejandro Santiago VargasM
- 28Javier HernandezM
- 15Bryan ZaragozaM
- 9Roberto FernándezF
- 24T. DolanF
- 18Marcos FernándezF
- 20Gabriel MoscardoM
- 3Q. HartmanD
- 32J. A. LopezD
- 10Pol LozanoM
- 11Pere MillaM
- 14Unai NúñezD
- 7Javi PuadoF
Form going into Villarreal vs Espanyol
Villarreal
La Liga
- W2-1away to Valencia24 October 2026
- D0-0Elche17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Real Madrid10 October 2026
Espanyol
La Liga
- L1-2away to Racing Santander24 October 2026
- L0-1Atletico Madrid17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Malaga9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Espanyol vs Villarreal
Espanyol and Villarreal have met 7 times in the records we hold, Villarreal has won 6 of them to Espanyol's 1.
The record
Espanyol won the last one 1–0 on 30 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 14 |
| Villarreal | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 30 Oct 2026
La LigaVillarreal 0–1 Espanyol - 9 Feb 2026
La LigaVillarreal 4–1 Espanyol - 8 Nov 2025
La LigaEspanyol 0–2 Villarreal - 27 Apr 2025
La LigaVillarreal 1–0 Espanyol - 26 Sep 2024
La LigaEspanyol 1–2 Villarreal - 27 Apr 2023
La LigaVillarreal 4–2 Espanyol - 9 Nov 2022
La LigaEspanyol 0–1 Villarreal
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Villarreal's attack rates 56% above Espanyol's, and Villarreal concede 4% fewer than Espanyol. That gives Villarreal the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | 0.78 | 0.91 |
| Villarreal | 1.22 | 0.87 |
Leading scorers: Villarreal and Espanyol
Villarreal
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Espanyol
GoalsAssists
- Roberto Fernández60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Espanyol won 1–0 at Villarreal. The model had leaned towards a win for Villarreal at 58% and given a win for Espanyol 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goal: Leandro Cabrera 60' for Espanyol. On expected goals it finished 0.96–0.27.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Villarreal a 17.0% chance to finish in the top four: 18.3% after a win, 15.2% after a draw, 10.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.9%, 6.1 points lower than before the match.
For Espanyol the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 21.3% going in: 13.6% after a win, 20.4% after a draw, 22.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.6%, 7.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.