30 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Al Ittihad Alexandria vs El Geish Premier League prediction & result

Borg El Arab Stadium, Alexandria
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Al Ittihad Alexandria 0-0 El Geish.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Al Ittihad Alexandria, 31% draw, 25% El Geish — fair odds of 2.27, 3.23 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al Ittihad Alexandria at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Ittihad Alexandria4%Draw94%El Geish2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
Khaled Abo Ziada
Momen Awad
33'
🔁Pascal Phiriout: Nour Alaa
59'
68'
🔁Ahmed Tarekout: Yehia Mostafa
68'
🔁Ahmed Abdel Rahman Zolaout: Zaghloul Mohamed
🔁Hossam Hassanout: John Okoye Ebuka
77'
🔁Mohamed Fakhriout: Mohamed Toni
77'
81'
🔁I. Ouro-Agoroout: Fares Hatem
🔁Youssry Wahidout: Joseph Arumala
86'
89'
🔁Mohamed Atefout: Mohamed Hany
89'
🔁Karim Tarekout: Hamed Khaled El Gabry
90+1'
Mohamed Hany
90+3'
Mohamed Hany

Match stats — Al Ittihad Alexandria vs El Geish

57%Possession43%
12Shots12
1On target2
2Corners6
1.32xG0.58

Goals against chances

Al Ittihad Alexandria0 from 1.32 xGless than the chances were worth
El Geish0 from 0.58 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Ittihad Alexandria 4-2-3-1
  • 1Sobhi SolimanG
  • 24Momen AwadD
  • 7Mohamed Mostafa MidoD
  • 5Mostafa IbrahimD
  • 30K. MosaadD
  • 25Mahmoud EmadM
  • 14Mohamed FakhryM
  • 35Pascal PhiriM
  • 23I. SaviourM
  • 11Youssry WahidM
  • 10Hossam HassanF
Substitutes
  • 4Islam AbdallahD
  • 31Ali El GabryG
  • 22Nour AlaaM
  • 80Joseph ArumalaF
  • 21Ahmed HamdiM
  • 18J. EbukaF
  • 20Mazen OsamaD
  • 44K. SemakulaD
  • 8Mohamed ToniM
Coach: Hamza El Gamal
El Geish 4-1-4-1
  • 1Omar RadwanG
  • 8Ahmed Abdel Rahman ZolaD
  • 6Khaled StouhiD
  • 4Mohamed FathallahD
  • 21Khaled Abo ZiadaD
  • 22Mostafa KhawagaM
  • 30Mohamed AtefM
  • 25Ahmed TarekM
  • 12Islam MoharebM
  • 11Karim TarekM
  • 28I. Ouro-AgoroF
Substitutes
  • 2Momen MahmoudD
  • 13Komlavi KomiF
  • 9Fares HatemF
  • 18Emad El SayedG
  • 19Hamed KhaledM
  • 10Mohamed HanyF
  • 24Z. MohamedM
  • 17Walid BenbellaM
  • 32Yehia MostafaM
Coach: Gomaa Mashhour

Form going into Al Ittihad Alexandria vs El Geish

Al Ittihad Alexandria

Premier League

  • L1-2away to Ghazl El Mehalla21 October 2026
  • W2-1El Gouna FC13 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Al Masry15 September 2026
  • W1-0Asyut Petrol7 September 2026

El Geish

Premier League

  • L1-4Pyramids FC20 October 2026
  • L0-3away to National Bank of Egypt13 October 2026
  • L0-1Smouha SC14 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Olympic El Qanah7 September 2026

What these results say

  • Al Ittihad Alexandria scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Al Ittihad Alexandria won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • El Geish did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • El Geish conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Egypt Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Al Ittihad Alexandria842296+314
14El Geish8224612-68

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al Ittihad Alexandria vs El Geish

  • 13 May 2026Al Ittihad Alexandria 1–0 El GeishPremier League
  • 6 February 2026El Geish 0–1 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
  • 28 April 2025El Geish 1–2 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
  • 30 November 2024Al Ittihad Alexandria 0–1 El GeishPremier League
  • 4 July 2024El Geish 0–0 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
  • 14 February 2024Al Ittihad Alexandria 2–2 El GeishPremier League

Leading scorers: Al Ittihad Alexandria and El Geish

Al Ittihad Alexandria

GoalsAssists

  • Hossam Hassan40

El Geish

GoalsAssists

  • Islam Mohareb21

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al Ittihad Alexandria and El Geish drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Al Ittihad Alexandria at 44% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. Sent off: Mohamed Hany (El Geish) 90+3'. On expected goals it finished 1.32–0.58.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al Ittihad Alexandria these chances to finish in the top six: 48.1% after a win, 34.6% after a draw, 26.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 34.6%.

For El Geish the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 27.4% going in: 15.3% after a win, 26.0% after a draw, 34.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 26.0%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.