Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Shakhtar Donetsk 0-1 Sporting CP.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Shakhtar Donetsk, 26% draw, 48% Sporting CP — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sporting CP at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31D. RiznykG
- 17Vinícius TobiasD
- 5V. BondarD
- 22M. MatvienkoD
- 13PedrinhoD
- 29E. NazarynaM
- 30Alisson SantanaM
- 27O. OcheretkoM
- 6Marlon GomesM
- 77G. MendozaM
- 9Kauã EliasF
- 23K. FesyunG
- 16I. AzaroviD
- 25Gabriel CarvalhoF
- 18A. GhramD
- 14IsaqueM
- 20O. KaravaevM
- 8D. KryskivM
- 49Luca MeirellesF
- 37Lucas FerreiraM
- 1Rui SilvaG
- 72Eduardo QuaresmaD
- 73Eduardo FelicíssimoD
- 25Gonçalo InácioD
- 10Geny CatamoM
- 4S. AndersenM
- 5Sergi AltimiraM
- 20M. AraújoM
- 77I. DoumbiaM
- 97L. SuárezF
- 7F. IoannidisF
- 17R. ZalazarM
- 8João SimõesM
- 21Pedro LimaM
- 9Rafael Ferreira NelF
- 31Luis GuilhermeF
- 30KaiqueG
- 19N. IrankundaF
- 58Flávio GonçalvesF
- 22Iván FresnedaD
Form going into Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP
Shakhtar Donetsk
UEFA Champions League
- L0-1away to Inter21 October 2026
- W3-1AEK Athens FC14 October 2026
- D1-1away to PSV Eindhoven10 September 2026
Sporting CP
UEFA Champions League
- L2-3Lask Linz21 October 2026
- W2-0away to Lens13 October 2026
- W3-1Galatasaray9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Shakhtar Donetsk and Sporting CP
Shakhtar Donetsk
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Sporting CP
GoalsAssists
- L. Suárez40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sporting CP won 1–0 at Shakhtar Donetsk. The model had made a win for Sporting CP its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Issa Doumbia 59' for Sporting CP. On expected goals it finished 2.00–1.33.
How the call on Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP has moved
First published on 20 Oct at 32% / 24% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 26% / 26% / 48%: the biggest move is Shakhtar Donetsk's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Shakhtar Donetsk win26%▼ −6
- Draw26%▲ +2
- Sporting CP win48%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.