3 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Manchester United vs AS Roma UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Old Trafford, Manchester
Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Manchester United 3-2 AS Roma.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Manchester United, 24% draw, 39% AS Roma — fair odds of 2.70, 4.17 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AS Roma at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Manchester United95%Draw5%AS Roma0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽Matias Souleassist: Rodrigo Mora
17'
⚽Donyell Malen (pen)
20'
Matias Soule
Bruno Fernandes
20'
21'
🔁Devyne Renschout: Emanuele Lulli
35'
Emanuele Lulli
42'
Donyell Malen
45'
🔁Rodrigo Moraout: Niccolò Pisilli
🔁Carlos Balebaout: Youri Tielemans
51'
•Bruno Fernandes
58'
⚽Bruno Fernandes (pen)
58'
Ayden Heaven
70'
🔁Ayden Heavenout: Lisandro Martínez
75'
🔁Amad Dialloout: Shea Lacey
75'
75'
🔁Gianluca Manciniout: Daniele Ghilardi
76'
🔁Mario Hermosoout: Evan Ndicka
78'
🔁Donyell Malenout: Santiago Thomas Castro
Harry Maguire
78'
⚽Matheus Cunha
83'
⚽Matheus Cunhaassist: Shea Lacey
86'
Matheus Cunha
87'
🔁Harry Maguireout: Matthijs De Ligt
88'
🔁Bruno Fernandesout: Mason Mount
88'
Matheus Cunha
90+1'

Match stats — Manchester United vs AS Roma

52%Possession48%
15Shots7
6On target4
3Corners1
2.8xG1.59

Goals against chances

Manchester United3 from 2.80 xGabout what the chances were worth
AS Roma2 from 1.59 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Manchester United 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. LammensG
  • 15L. YoroD
  • 5H. MaguireD
  • 26A. HeavenD
  • 2Diogo DalotD
  • 20C. BalebaM
  • 37K. MainooM
  • 16A. DialloM
  • 8Bruno FernandesM
  • 10Matheus CunhaM
  • 19B. MbeumoF
Substitutes
  • 3N. MazraouiD
  • 6Lisandro MartínezD
  • 31S. LaceyF
  • 22T. HeatonG
  • 39T. FletcherM
  • 12K. DarlowG
  • 7M. MountM
  • 17Andrey SantosM
  • 18Y. TielemansM
Coach: M. Carrick
AS Roma 3-4-2-1
  • 32D. VásquezG
  • 23G. ManciniD
  • 26L. BalerdiD
  • 22HermosoD
  • 2D. RenschM
  • 4B. CristanteM
  • 15M. de RoonM
  • 43WesleyM
  • 18M. SouléM
  • 86Rodrigo MoraM
  • 14D. MalenF
Substitutes
  • 20N. MolinaD
  • 77E. LulliD
  • 3K. KoulierakisD
  • 87D. GhilardiD
  • 63Alessandro Di NunzioM
  • 70G. De MarziG
  • 9S. CastroF
  • 61N. PisilliM
  • 5E. NdickaD
Coach: G. Gasperini

Form going into Manchester United vs AS Roma

Manchester United

UEFA Champions League

  • L1-4away to Como21 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Atletico Madrid13 October 2026
  • W4-0Sabah FA10 September 2026

AS Roma

UEFA Champions League

  • W4-0Slovan Bratislava20 October 2026
  • L3-4Real Madrid14 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Fenerbahçe10 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Manchester United42028806
20AS Roma4112108+24

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Manchester United vs AS Roma

  • 6 May 2021AS Roma 3–2 Manchester UnitedUEFA Europa League
  • 29 April 2021Manchester United 6–2 AS RomaUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Manchester United and AS Roma

Manchester United

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

AS Roma

GoalsAssists

  • D. Malen42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Manchester United beat AS Roma 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for AS Roma at 39% and given a win for Manchester United 37%. The goals: Matias Soule 11' for AS Roma, Donyell Malen (penalty) 17' for AS Roma, Bruno Fernandes (penalty) 58' for Manchester United, Matheus Cunha 83' for Manchester United, Matheus Cunha 86' for Manchester United. Sent off: Matheus Cunha (Manchester United) 90+1'. On expected goals it finished 2.80–1.59.

How the call on Manchester United v AS Roma has moved

First published on 20 Oct at 31% / 25% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 11 updates, it read 37% / 24% / 39%: the biggest move is Manchester United's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Manchester United win37%▲ +6
  2. Draw24%▼ −1
  3. AS Roma win39%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.