6 November 2026, 00:30 UTC

Cruzeiro vs Bahia Serie A prediction & result

Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte
Referee: R. Klein
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Cruzeiro 3-2 Bahia.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Cruzeiro, 25% draw, 23% Bahia — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cruzeiro at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cruzeiro99%Draw1%Bahia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Fabricio Brunoout: M. Vina
5'
19'
Nicolas Acevedo
32'
⚽C. Oliveraassist: Rodrigo
⚽Kaio Jorgeassist: K. Arroyo
45+2'
57'
🔁Nicolas Acevedoout: Jean Lucas
⚽Kaio Jorge (pen)assist: Kaio Jorge
63'
65'
🔁Erickout: Caio Alexandre
65'
🔁Rodrigoout: Michel Araujo
65'
🔁Everton Ribeiroout: Erick Pulga
⚽Bruno Rodriguesassist: K. Arroyo
69'
69'
Caio Alexandre
Bruno Rodrigues
70'
Jonathan Jesus
76'
🔁K. Arroyoout: Marquinhos
82'
🔁Bruno Rodriguesout: Matheus Henrique
82'
🔁Fagnerout: Kaua Moraes
82'
83'
🔁Kanuout: R. Gomez
⚽Kaio Jorgeassist: L. Romero
86'
🔁Gersonout: Lucas Silva
87'
90+5'
⚽A. Velizassist: Luciano Juba
Kaua Moraes
90+8'

Match stats — Cruzeiro vs Bahia

45%Possession55%
22Shots13
8On target5
5Corners7
3.52xG0.72

Goals against chances

Cruzeiro3 from 3.52 xGless than the chances were worth
Bahia2 from 0.72 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
  • 81Otávio CostaG
  • 23FagnerD
  • 34Jonathan JesusD
  • 15Fabrício BrunoD
  • 27Gabriel RojasD
  • 29Lucas RomeroM
  • 5Zé LucasM
  • 99Keny ArroyoM
  • 9Bruno RodriguesM
  • 8GersonM
  • 19Kaio JorgeF
Substitutes
  • 6Matías ViñaD
  • 2Kauã MoraesD
  • 7Matheus HenriqueM
  • 11MarquinhosF
  • 16Lucas SilvaM
  • 41Léo AragãoG
  • 1CássioG
  • 67João CostaF
  • 20WesleyF
Bahia 4-2-3-1
  • 1RonaldoG
  • 44Marcos VictorD
  • 33David DuarteD
  • 4KanuD
  • 46Luciano JubaD
  • 14ErickM
  • 5Nicolás AcevedoM
  • 99Cristian OliveraM
  • 10Everton RibeiroM
  • 11Rodrigo NestorM
  • 9Alejo VélizF
Substitutes
  • 6Jean LucasM
  • 15Michel AraújoM
  • 8Caio AlexandreM
  • 16Erick PulgaF
  • 31Román GómezD
  • 17Guido HerreraG
  • 43Luiz GustavoD
  • 66José GuilhermeD
  • 77Ruan PabloF

Form going into Cruzeiro vs Bahia

Cruzeiro

Serie A

  • W1-0away to Atletico Mineiro29 October 2026
  • W1-0Remo23 October 2026
  • W4-2away to Gremio18 October 2026
  • L2-4away to RB Bragantino13 October 2026

Bahia

Serie A

  • W3-2Sao Paulo29 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Santos25 October 2026
  • L0-3Flamengo18 October 2026
  • W1-0Mirassol11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Cruzeiro scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Cruzeiro won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Bahia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Bahia conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Cruzeiro34186105548+760
6Bahia34141195045+553

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cruzeiro vs Bahia

  • 10 May 2026Bahia 1–2 CruzeiroSerie A
  • 15 September 2025Bahia 1–2 CruzeiroSerie A
  • 18 April 2025Cruzeiro 3–0 BahiaSerie A
  • 19 October 2024Cruzeiro 1–1 BahiaSerie A
  • 23 June 2024Bahia 4–1 CruzeiroSerie A
  • 25 October 2023Cruzeiro 3–0 BahiaSerie A

The full Cruzeiro vs Bahia record →

Leading scorers: Cruzeiro and Bahia

Cruzeiro

GoalsAssists

  • Kaio Jorge142
  • Matheus Pereira97

Bahia

GoalsAssists

  • Luciano Juba112

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cruzeiro beat Bahia 3–2. The model had made a win for Cruzeiro its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: C. Olivera 32' for Bahia, Kaio Jorge 45+2' for Cruzeiro, Bruno Rodrigues 69' for Cruzeiro, Kaio Jorge 86' for Cruzeiro, A. Veliz 90+5' for Bahia. On expected goals it finished 3.52–0.72.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cruzeiro a 86.7% chance to finish in the top four: 96.0% after a win, 84.7% after a draw, 67.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 96.0%, 9.3 points higher than before the match.

For Bahia the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 33.4% going in: 60.7% after a win, 36.5% after a draw, 21.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.7%, 11.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.