Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Anderlecht 2-0 Red Bull Salzburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Anderlecht, 27% draw, 22% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Anderlecht at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26C. CoosemansG
- 79A. MaamarD
- 4G. BianconeD
- 27L. PétrotD
- 6L. AugustinssonD
- 29M. StroeykensM
- 24E. LlansanaM
- 49Jayden Onia SekeM
- 18L. AmbrosF
- 9M. CvetkoviÄF
- 14D. SikanF
- 8R. AmanéM
- 10M. WinklerF
- 11O. AntmanF
- 50K. BarryD
- 21T. BentayebF
- 91A. BertacciniF
- 83T. DegreefM
- 32J. HeekerenG
- 55M. KanaM
- 52Christian ZawieschitzkyG
- 39L. MorgallaD
- 21T. DrexlerD
- 47Valentin ZabranskyD
- 13F. KrätzigD
- 32A. BarryM
- 15B. MazurekM
- 20E. BaidooM
- 30G. DiakitéM
- 11Y. VertessenM
- 9H. TabakovićF
- 7U. TohumcuM
- 41Nikola ŠarčevićG
- 23D. RedzicF
- 35J. LindstrømM
- 22S. LainerD
- 19K. KonatéF
- 1C. FrüchtlG
- 5S. DiabatéM
- 91A. ChaseD
Form going into Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg
Anderlecht
UEFA Europa League
- W3-0away to Jagiellonia22 October 2026
- L0-1away to Dinamo Zagreb15 October 2026
- L1-2Lyon16 September 2026
Red Bull Salzburg
UEFA Europa League
- D2-2away to Celje22 October 2026
- L0-4AC Milan15 October 2026
- W1-0away to Levski Sofia17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Anderlecht | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 26 | Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Anderlecht beat Red Bull Salzburg 2–0. The model had made a win for Anderlecht its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Ludwig Augustinsson 20' for Anderlecht, Marten Winkler 90' for Anderlecht. On expected goals it finished 2.62–0.58.
How the call on Anderlecht v Red Bull Salzburg has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 51% / 27% / 22%: the biggest move is Anderlecht's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Anderlecht win51%▲ +7
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Red Bull Salzburg win22%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.