5 November 2026, 17:45 UTC

AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Milan
Referee: Urs Schnyder
Full time0 – 2

Final score: AC Milan 0-2 Ferencvarosi TC.

Before kick-off the model made it 63% AC Milan, 22% draw, 15% Ferencvarosi TC — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AC Milan at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AC Milan0%Draw1%Ferencvarosi TC99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Alphadjo Cissè
32'
🔁Alphadjo Cissèout: Christian Pulisic
45'
🔁Sankhoun Diawaraout: Mario Gila
45'
🔁Yunus Musahout: Diego Moreira
45'
Koni De Winter
51'
52'
⚽Lenny Josephassist: Kristoffer Zachariassen
🔁Ardon Jashariout: Luka Modrić
63'
66'
⚽Lenny Josephassist: Kristoffer Zachariassen
67'
🔁Matúš Beroout: Ádám Madarász
67'
🔁Lenny Josephout: Bamidele Isa Yusuf
🔁Davide Bartesaghiout: Francesco Camarda
67'
77'
•Bamidele Isa Yusuf
77'
Bamidele Isa Yusuf
86'
🔁Kristoffer Zachariassenout: Habib Maïga
86'
🔁Veljko Birmančevićout: Jonathan Levi
90+2'
🔁marius corbuout: Daniel Arzani
90+4'
Ádám Nagy

Match stats — AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC

70%Possession30%
15Shots12
2On target8
2Corners4
1.05xG3.13

Goals against chances

AC Milan0 from 1.05 xGless than the chances were worth
Ferencvarosi TC2 from 3.13 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AC Milan 4-4-1-1
  • 96L. TorrianiG
  • 42F. TerraccianoD
  • 5K. De WinterD
  • 13S. BocoumD
  • 33D. BartesaghiD
  • 20O. HutchinsonM
  • 30A. JashariM
  • 80Y. MusahM
  • 70A. CissèM
  • 12A. RabiotM
  • 9Gonçalo RamosF
Substitutes
  • 41L. P. BouyerG
  • 35V. VladimirovD
  • 11C. PulišićM
  • 37M. PittarellaG
  • 22Diego MoreiraF
  • 14L. ModrićM
  • 34Mario GilaD
  • 2P. EstupiñánD
  • 28C. ComottoM
Coach: Ruben Amorim
Ferencvarosi TC 4-2-3-1
  • 90D. DibuszG
  • 14A. OsváthD
  • 28T. RaemaekersD
  • 4M. GómezD
  • 20CaduD
  • 6Á. NagyM
  • 17M. CorbuM
  • 16K. ZachariassenM
  • 22M. BeroM
  • 7V. BirmančevićM
  • 75L. JosephF
Substitutes
  • 5G. ZohoréD
  • 15D. ArzaniF
  • 18Á. BagiF
  • 11B. YusufF
  • 8N. KeïtaM
  • 10J. LeviF
  • 72Ádám MadarászM
  • 80H. MaïgaM
  • 54O. NagyD
Coach: B. Borbely

Form going into AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC

AC Milan

UEFA Europa League

  • L0-3away to Bournemouth22 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Red Bull Salzburg15 October 2026
  • L0-2Benfica16 September 2026

Ferencvarosi TC

UEFA Europa League

  • W4-1Torreense22 October 2026
  • W2-1Plzen15 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Celtic17 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
28AC Milan410347-33
3Ferencvarosi TC4400113+812

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: AC Milan and Ferencvarosi TC

AC Milan

GoalsAssists

  • A. Cissè30

Ferencvarosi TC

GoalsAssists

  • L. Joseph41
  • K. Zachariassen34
  • B. Yusuf22

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ferencvarosi TC won 2–0 at AC Milan. The model had leaned towards a win for AC Milan at 63% and given a win for Ferencvarosi TC 15%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 7 matches like this one. The goals: Lenny Joseph 52' for Ferencvarosi TC, Lenny Joseph 66' for Ferencvarosi TC. Sent off: Bamidele Isa Yusuf (Ferencvarosi TC) 77'. On expected goals it finished 1.05–3.13.

How the call on AC Milan v Ferencvarosi TC has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 67% / 21% / 12% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 63% / 22% / 15%: the biggest move is AC Milan's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. AC Milan win63%▼ −4
  2. Draw22%▲ +1
  3. Ferencvarosi TC win15%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.