17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon League One prediction & result

Hillsborough, Sheffield
Full time5 – 0

Final score: Sheffield Wednesday 5-0 AFC Wimbledon.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Sheffield Wednesday, 28% draw, 22% AFC Wimbledon — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sheffield Wednesday at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sheffield Wednesday99%Draw1%AFC Wimbledon0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Barry Bannanassist: Davis Keillor-Dunn
38'
⚽Davis Keillor-Dunn
39'
⚽Harry Grayassist: Jamal Lowe
45'
45'
🔁Aron Sasuout: Marcus Browne
45'
🔁Callum Maycockout: James Tilley
Reece James
49'
⚽Callum Slatteryassist: Reece James
56'
Jaden Heskey
60'
🔁Barry Bannanout: Billy Mitchell
61'
🔁Jamal Loweout: Ali Al-Hamadi
62'
🔁Liam Cooperout: Gabriel·Otegbayo
62'
65'
🔁Ollie Harrisonout: Zack Nelson
70'
Andy Yiadom
73'
🔁Jayden Stockleyout: Harry Cornick
🔁Di'Shon Bernardout: Max Lowe
74'
🔁Harry Grayout: Kieran Morrison
81'
⚽Davis Keillor-Dunnassist: Kieran Morrison
85'

Match stats — Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon

58%Possession42%
25Shots7
11On target0
2Corners4
2.64xG0.39

Goals against chances

Sheffield Wednesday5 from 2.64 xGmore than the chances were worth
AFC Wimbledon0 from 0.39 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sheffield Wednesday 4-2-3-1
  • 13A. Maynard-BrewerG
  • 7Y. ValeryD
  • 5D. BernardD
  • 6L. CooperD
  • 33R. JamesD
  • 18Jaden HeskeyM
  • 10B. BannanM
  • 50D. Keillor-DunnM
  • 8C. SlatteryM
  • 24H. GrayM
  • 9J. LoweF
Substitutes
  • 20K. MorrisonM
  • 16B. MitchellM
  • 3M. LoweD
  • 12Ali Al HamadiF
  • 27C. TruemanG
  • 2L. PalmerD
  • 22G. OtegbayoD
Coach: H. Pedersen
AFC Wimbledon 5-4-1
  • 39J. BursikG
  • 17A. YiadomD
  • 2S. SessegnonD
  • 3S. SeddonD
  • 6R. JohnsonD
  • 29A. SasuD
  • 8C. MaycockM
  • 5O. HarrisonM
  • 12A. SmithM
  • 21M. HippolyteM
  • 9J. StockleyF
Substitutes
  • 7J. TilleyF
  • 15F. SimmondsD
  • 10Z. NelsonM
  • 20J. McDonnellG
  • 22R. HoranD
  • 23H. CornickF
  • 11M. BrowneM
Coach: J. Jackson

Form going into Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon

Sheffield Wednesday

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Huddersfield10 October 2026
  • D1-1Cambridge United3 October 2026

AFC Wimbledon

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Plymouth10 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Cambridge United26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Sheffield Wednesday146532514+1123
17AFC Wimbledon144461021-1116

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon

  • 2 April 2022Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 AFC WimbledonLeague One
  • 16 October 2021AFC Wimbledon 2–2 Sheffield WednesdayLeague One

Leading scorers: Sheffield Wednesday and AFC Wimbledon

Sheffield Wednesday

GoalsAssists

  • J. Lowe52

AFC Wimbledon

GoalsAssists

  • J. Stockley61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sheffield Wednesday beat AFC Wimbledon 5–0. The model had made a win for Sheffield Wednesday its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Barry Bannan 38' for Sheffield Wednesday, Davis Keillor-Dunn 39' for Sheffield Wednesday, Harry Gray 45' for Sheffield Wednesday, Callum Slattery 56' for Sheffield Wednesday, Davis Keillor-Dunn 85' for Sheffield Wednesday. On expected goals it finished 2.64–0.39.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sheffield Wednesday a 22.7% chance to finish in the top four: 24.9% after a win, 19.6% after a draw, 18.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.9%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

For AFC Wimbledon the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 23.0% going in: 18.2% after a win, 21.5% after a draw, 25.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.3%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sheffield Wednesday v AFC Wimbledon has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 45% / 30% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 50% / 28% / 22%: the biggest move is Sheffield Wednesday's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Sheffield Wednesday win50%▲ +5
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. AFC Wimbledon win22%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.