17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Wycombe vs Notts County League One prediction & result

Adams Park, High Wycombe
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Wycombe 2-0 Notts County.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Wycombe, 27% draw, 29% Notts County — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Wycombe at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jack Grimmer
22'
⚽Max Sanders (OG)
44'
45'
🔁Lucas Nessout: Ishé Samuels-Smith
61'
🔁Max Sandersout: Scott Robertson
62'
🔁Jack Evansout: Conor·Grant
62'
🔁lee ndlovuout: D. Kanu
62'
🔁Rory Finneranout: Matt Palmer
🔁Jamie Mullinsout: Junior Quitirna
70'
77'
Scott Robertson
🔁Cauley Woodrowout: Ewan Henderson
83'
⚽Fred Onyedinmaassist: Daniel Harvie
86'
🔁Caolan Boyd-Munceout: Luke Leahy
89'
90+4'
James Gibbons

Match stats — Wycombe vs Notts County

54%Possession46%
15Shots4
3On target0
9Corners3
1.33xG0.47

Goals against chances

Wycombe2 from 1.33 xGmore than the chances were worth
Notts County0 from 0.47 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Wycombe 3-5-2
  • 23C. HazardG
  • 2J. GrimmerD
  • 45A. HagelskjærD
  • 26C. TaylorD
  • 44F. OnyedinmaM
  • 8C. Boyd-MunceM
  • 4J. ScowenM
  • 21Jamie MullinsM
  • 3D. HarvieM
  • 12C. WoodrowF
  • 15J. WarehamF
Substitutes
  • 17D. CaseyD
  • 20E. HendersonM
  • 10L. LeahyM
  • 5A. MorleyM
  • 7Armando QuitirnaF
  • 11Silko Amari Otieno ThomasF
  • 33J. WildsmithG
Coach: T. Hounsell
Notts County 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. GibbonsG
  • 12L. NessD
  • 3R. McDonaldD
  • 4J. BedeauD
  • 2J. GibbonsM
  • 6M. SandersM
  • 15J. EvansM
  • 25N. TsaroullaM
  • 7C. RobertsM
  • 27R. FinneranM
  • 39L. NdlovuF
Substitutes
  • 11C. GrantM
  • 9D. KanuF
  • 17Maziar KouhyarM
  • 14D. LipsiucM
  • 18M. PalmerM
  • 20S. RobertsonM
  • 26I. Samuels-SmithD
Coach: M. Paterson

Form going into Wycombe vs Notts County

Wycombe

League One

  • L1-4Luton10 October 2026

Notts County

League One

  • L1-2Oxford United10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Wycombe134632123-218
18Notts County123541314-114

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Wycombe vs Notts County

  • 13 July 2024Notts County 1–0 WycombeFriendlies Clubs
  • 30 March 2018Notts County 0–0 WycombeLeague Two
  • 19 August 2017Wycombe 2–4 Notts CountyLeague Two
  • 25 March 2017Wycombe 0–1 Notts CountyLeague Two
  • 10 December 2016Notts County 0–2 WycombeLeague Two

Leading scorers: Wycombe and Notts County

Wycombe

GoalsAssists

  • J. Wareham61
  • F. Onyedinma43

Notts County

No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Wycombe beat Notts County 2–0. The model had made a win for Wycombe its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Max Sanders (own goal) 44' for Wycombe, Fred Onyedinma 86' for Wycombe. On expected goals it finished 1.33–0.47.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wycombe a 9.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 6.9% after a win, 8.2% after a draw, 11.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.9%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.

For Notts County the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 17.4% going in: 12.9% after a win, 16.4% after a draw, 19.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.7%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Wycombe v Notts County has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 44% / 27% / 29%: the biggest move is Wycombe's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Wycombe win44%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Notts County win29%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.