Wigan vs Reading League One prediction & result
Final score: Wigan 1-0 Reading.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Wigan, 27% draw, 47% Reading — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Reading at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wigan vs Reading
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41J. WhitworthG
- 4J. Chilokoa-MullenD
- 23J. CarragherD
- 5F. BurnsD
- 2C. BarrettM
- 18Charlie GrayM
- 6J. WeirM
- 16Archie HarrisM
- 10R. WalshM
- 27B. BurrowsM
- 25S. HoganF
- 21K'Marni MillerD
- 7F. MurrayM
- 38C. SaydeeF
- 9S. PerkinsF
- 19C. SzeF
- 1J. WalshG
- 22J. MellishD
- 1Joel PereiraG
- 2U. Godwin-MalifeD
- 15P. O'ConnorD
- 3J. DorsettD
- 5H. RobertsD
- 4A. RinomhotaM
- 19Kyreece LisbieM
- 10L. WingM
- 32P. LaneM
- 28J. StokesF
- 9J. ReidF
- 18J. BrownF
- 6L. FraserM
- 20J. KnightD
- 11D. KyerewaaM
- 8C. SavageM
- 25J. StevensG
- 14R. WilliamsM
Form going into Wigan vs Reading
Wigan
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Stevenage10 October 2026
Reading
All competitions we cover
- W5-1away to Milton Keynes Dons10 October 2026
- D1-1Bradford3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Wycombe26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wigan | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
| 7 | Reading | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wigan vs Reading
- 28 March 2026Reading 3–0 WiganLeague One
- 10 February 2026Wigan 1–2 ReadingLeague One
- 1 March 2025Wigan 1–2 ReadingLeague One
- 17 August 2024Reading 2–0 WiganLeague One
- 20 January 2024Wigan 1–0 ReadingLeague One
Leading scorers: Wigan and Reading
Wigan
No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Reading
GoalsAssists
- J. Marriott90
- Kyreece Lisbie55
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Wigan beat Reading 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Reading at 47% and given a win for Wigan 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Scott Hogan 71' for Wigan. On expected goals it finished 1.20–2.01.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wigan a 50.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 44.7% after a win, 49.1% after a draw, 53.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.7%, 5.7 points lower than before the match.
For Reading the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 41.4% going in: 44.4% after a win, 39.1% after a draw, 36.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.1%, 5.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Wigan v Reading has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 29% / 30% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 26% / 27% / 47%: the biggest move is Reading's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Wigan win26%▼ −3
- Draw27%▼ −3
- Reading win47%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.