31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Oldham vs Crawley Town League Two prediction & result

Boundary Park, Oldham
Referee: D. Rock
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Oldham 0-1 Crawley Town.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Oldham, 26% draw, 22% Crawley Town — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Oldham at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Oldham0%Draw3%Crawley Town97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Kai Payne
14'
🔁Favour fawunmiout: Tom Pett
18'
25'
Kai Jennings
Kane drummond
30'
39'
🔁Kai Jenningsout: Pemi Aderoju
52'
⚽Danilo Orsi
🔁Oliver Norburnout: Thomas Hill
54'
Thomas Hill
60'
Donervorn Daniels
63'
71'
🔁Stephen·Duke-Mckennaout: Dion Pereira
72'
Jonathan Russell
🔁Calum Kavanaghout: Josh Hawkes
72'
78'
🔁Jonathan Russellout: Josh Flint
78'
🔁Danilo Orsiout: Ade Adeyemo
85'
Kellan Gordon

Match stats — Oldham vs Crawley Town

40%Possession60%
16Shots18
2On target6
2Corners5
1.02xG1.86

Goals against chances

Oldham0 from 1.02 xGless than the chances were worth
Crawley Town1 from 1.86 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Oldham 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. HudsonG
  • 16W. SuttonD
  • 5D. DanielsD
  • 6E. MontheD
  • 3J. RobsonD
  • 8O. NorburnM
  • 26Kai PayneM
  • 15K. DrummondM
  • 10C. KavanaghM
  • 17F. FawunmiM
  • 9M. Fondop-TalumF
Substitutes
  • 14N. ChilversM
  • 21J. HawkesM
  • 30Thomas Daniel HillM
  • 4T. PettM
  • 24L. TempleD
  • 22Wilson WilsonG
  • 2G. Scott-MorrissD
Coach: M. Mellon
Crawley Town 4-1-4-1
  • 1V. MannoneG
  • 2K. GordonD
  • 6P. FarquharsonD
  • 5C. BarkerD
  • 12L. RichardsD
  • 10S. Duke-McKennaM
  • 27Dylan MorganM
  • 20J. ArthursM
  • 30Kai JenningsM
  • 16J. RussellM
  • 9D. OrsiF
Substitutes
  • 11P. AderojuF
  • 22A. AdeyemoF
  • 13N. MichalskiG
  • 19D. PereiraM
  • 8L. WatsonM
  • 28Nathan TinsdaleM
  • 3J. FlintD
Coach: K. Blackwell

Form going into Oldham vs Crawley Town

Oldham

League Two

  • D1-1away to Barnet24 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Walsall20 October 2026

Crawley Town

League Two

  • D1-1Tranmere24 October 2026
  • L2-3Shrewsbury20 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Salford City17 October 2026
  • D2-2Chesterfield10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Crawley Town did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Crawley Town scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Crawley Town conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Oldham154381621-515
24Crawley Town122371321-89

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Oldham vs Crawley Town

  • 28 February 2026Oldham 2–0 Crawley TownLeague Two
  • 13 December 2025Crawley Town 2–2 OldhamLeague Two
  • 7 May 2022Oldham 3–3 Crawley TownLeague Two
  • 1 March 2022Crawley Town 2–2 OldhamLeague Two
  • 5 April 2021Crawley Town 1–4 OldhamLeague Two
  • 26 September 2020Oldham 2–3 Crawley TownLeague Two

Leading scorers: Oldham and Crawley Town

Oldham

GoalsAssists

  • C. Kavanagh54

Crawley Town

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Crawley Town won 1–0 at Oldham. The model had leaned towards a win for Oldham at 52% and given a win for Crawley Town 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: Danilo Orsi 52' for Crawley Town. Sent off: Kai Payne (Oldham) 14', Kane drummond (Oldham) 30'. On expected goals it finished 1.02–1.86.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Crawley Town a 61.5% chance to finish in the bottom two: 53.9% after a win, 60.8% after a draw, 64.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.9%, 7.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.