24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Bate Borisov vs Belshina Premier League prediction & result

Borisov Arena, Barysaw
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Bate Borisov 0-1 Belshina.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Bate Borisov, 27% draw, 26% Belshina — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bate Borisov at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
Daniil Lazarev
Aik Musahagian
43'
🔁yaroslav khramtsevichout: Nikolay Bochko
58'
🔁Victorien Angbanout: Egor Rusakov
58'
🔁Aik Musahagianout: Maksim Sakuta
58'
61'
🔁luka zgurskiyout: Vladislav Solanovich
66'
🔁Daniil Lazarevout: alexander shvedchikov
🔁erick puertoout: vladislav yatskevich
70'
79'
🔁Nikita Golubout: V Kovalev
Nikita Neskoromny
81'
82'
V Kovalev
83'
Ilya Vikhrov
87'
⚽pavel dubovskiy (OG)

Match stats — Bate Borisov vs Belshina

66%Possession34%
11Shots2
5On target0
14Corners6

Line-ups

Bate Borisov 4-4-2
  • 35A. SkopetsG
  • 88P. DubovskiyD
  • 13Y. KhramtsevichD
  • 6H. MoussakhanianD
  • 25N. NeskoromnyD
  • 28I. MikhnyukM
  • 52E. KressM
  • 26V. VaraksaM
  • 7V. AngbanM
  • 17Y. KovalevF
  • 37E. PuertoF
Substitutes
  • 24V. YatskevichF
  • 4K. ApanasevichF
  • 23N. BochkoD
  • 30T. GagloevM
  • 55K. KaplenkoM
  • 18P. KolosovskiyM
  • 10E. RusakovM
  • 47A. SakhonchikM
  • 5M. SakutaD
Coach: V. Rogozhkin
Belshina
  • 3A. Kuchinskiy
  • 27L. Zgurskiy
  • 78G. Yakushevich
  • 17I. Vikhrov
  • 8V. Rusenchik
  • 31Pavel Prishivalko
  • 6D. Lazarev
  • 7A. Achapovskiy
  • 14V. Davydov
  • 21N. Golub
  • 10Y. Kozlov
Substitutes
  • 66K. BalotnikauD
  • 77V. KovalevM
  • 25A. MakhmudovG
  • 44D. MalashkevichD
  • 15K. MalykhD
  • 54N. PatsenkoG
  • 5P. SeleznevM
  • 9A. ShvedchikovF
  • 19N. SokolovskiyD
Coach: Aleksandr Volodko

Form going into Bate Borisov vs Belshina

Bate Borisov

Premier League

  • L1-2away to FC Dnepr Mogilev18 October 2026
  • L0-2Neman14 October 2026

Belshina

Premier League

  • L2-4Slavia Mozyr19 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Bate Borisov2859142034-1424
13Belshina2866163053-2324

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bate Borisov vs Belshina

  • 12 June 2026Belshina 1–1 Bate BorisovPremier League
  • 28 February 2026Bate Borisov 2–1 BelshinaFriendlies Clubs
  • 22 September 2023Bate Borisov 2–1 BelshinaPremier League
  • 6 May 2023Belshina 0–3 Bate BorisovPremier League
  • 11 March 2023Bate Borisov 5–0 BelshinaCoppa
  • 4 March 2023Belshina 0–5 Bate BorisovCoppa

The result against the call

Belshina won 1–0 at Bate Borisov. The model had leaned towards a win for Bate Borisov at 47% and given a win for Belshina 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: pavel dubovskiy (own goal) 87' for Belshina. Sent off: Nikita Neskoromny (Bate Borisov) 81'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bate Borisov a 37.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 19.5% after a win, 44.0% after a draw, 66.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.1%, 28.6 points higher than before the match.

For Belshina the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 63.4% going in: 33.2% after a win, 60.8% after a draw, 79.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.2%, 30.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bate Borisov v Belshina has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 47% / 27% / 26%: the biggest move is Bate Borisov's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Bate Borisov win47%▲ +5
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Belshina win26%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.