24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik Premijer Liga prediction & result

Stadion Pecara
Referee: Dragan Todić, Bosnia & Herzegovina
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Siroki Brijeg 0-0 Čelik.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Siroki Brijeg, 26% draw, 27% Čelik — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Siroki Brijeg at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Siroki Brijeg5%Draw92%Čelik3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁M. Baracout: M. Hrkac
7'
42'
H. Sabanovic
56'
🔁O. Sarkicout: B. Jenjic
🔁M. Maticout: L. Guedes
62'
🔁I. Jelicout: F. Jelcic
62'
69'
🔁H. Vardoout: D. Vidic
80'
🔁A. Hrvanovicout: D. Sijamija
81'
🔁H. Sabanovicout: E. Sivac
🔁D. Virgiliout: M. Soldo
85'
🔁K. Sesarout: I. Kraljevic
85'

Line-ups

Siroki Brijeg 4-2-3-1
  • 51Ivan PuljićG
  • 26Marijan OršolićD
  • 5Bartul MarkovinaD
  • 47Ivan KrstanovicD
  • 2Mateo BaraćD
  • 77Robert MarijanovićM
  • 90Tomislav TomićM
  • 11David Virgili FernandezM
  • 18Marko MatićM
  • 44Kristian SesarF
  • 33Ivan JelićM
Substitutes
  • 29Matej HrkaćD
  • 19Filip JelčićM
  • 9Luizinho GuedesF
  • 3Mateo SoldoD
  • 30Ivan KraljevićD
  • 43Eugen CibanG
  • 13Lukas MagđinskiD
  • 14Niko VukančićD
  • 4Božo PrusinaM
Čelik 4-3-3
  • 1Arman ŠutkovićG
  • 24Halid ŠabanovićD
  • 17Albin OmićM
  • 4Kenan HorićD
  • 15Marin PopovićM
  • 5Harun VardoM
  • 18Oliver ŠarkićM
  • 8Andres MohedanoM
  • 14Aldin HrvanovićM
  • 99Anes MašićF
  • 11Samy FarajM
Substitutes
  • 20Bruno JenjićM
  • 9Dejan VidićF
  • 7Dževad SijamijaF
  • 21Eldar SivacD
  • 13Vladimir SavićG
  • 23Adi DurmoG
  • 2Amer HodžićD
  • 6Amer MašetićD
  • 19Nedim SmajlovićD

Form going into Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik

Siroki Brijeg

Premijer Liga

  • W1-0away to Sloga Doboj16 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Velež9 October 2026

Čelik

Premijer Liga

  • L0-3Zrinjski18 October 2026
  • D0-0FK Sarajevo11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premijer Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Siroki Brijeg134541314-117
8Čelik132561420-611

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik

  • 14 August 2026Čelik 1–2 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
  • 5 October 2019Čelik 2–0 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
  • 22 July 2019Siroki Brijeg 0–1 ČelikPremijer Liga
  • 25 May 2019Čelik 1–1 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
  • 21 October 2018Čelik 1–1 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
  • 5 August 2018Siroki Brijeg 6–0 ČelikPremijer Liga

Leading scorers: Siroki Brijeg and Čelik

Siroki Brijeg

GoalsAssists

  • M. Matić11

Čelik

GoalsAssists

  • A. Hrvanović22
  • Anes Mašić11

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Siroki Brijeg and Čelik drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Siroki Brijeg at 47% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Siroki Brijeg a 28.0% chance to finish in the top four: 32.2% after a win, 25.1% after a draw, 21.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 25.1%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.

For Čelik the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 24.6% going in: 16.9% after a win, 24.3% after a draw, 28.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 24.3%.

Read from our Premijer Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Siroki Brijeg v Čelik has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 42% / 26% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 47% / 26% / 27%: the biggest move is Siroki Brijeg's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Siroki Brijeg win47%▲ +5
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Čelik win27%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.