24 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav Czech Liga prediction & result

Eden Arena, Prague
Referee: Karel Roucek
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Slavia Praha 1-1 Mlada Boleslav.

Before kick-off the model made it 67% Slavia Praha, 20% draw, 13% Mlada Boleslav — fair odds of 1.49, 5.00 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Slavia Praha at 67%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Slavia Praha7%Draw91%Mlada Boleslav2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
⚽Martin Šubert
•Tomáš Holeš
41'
🔁Toumani Diakiteout: David Moses
45'
🔁Samuel Isifeout: Mubarak Suleiman
45'
64'
🔁Jiří Klímaout: Lukas Letenay
64'
🔁Daniel Langhamerout: Filip Spatenka
🔁Michal Sadílekout: David Jurasek
65'
71'
🔁Martin Šubertout: Matej Zachoval
🔁Lukáš Provodout: Danijel Sturm
73'
🔁Tomáš Holešout: Mikulas Konecny
85'
⚽Mojmír Chytilassist: Emmanuel Ayaosi
86'
89'
🔁Solomon Johnout: Josef Kolarik
89'
Vojtěch Vorel
Danijel Sturm
90+2'

Match stats — Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav

66%Possession34%
35Shots9
7On target2
11Corners5
2.95xG1.48

Goals against chances

Slavia Praha1 from 2.95 xGless than the chances were worth
Mlada Boleslav1 from 1.48 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Slavia Praha 4-3-3
  • 29N. DomchakG
  • 14S. IsifeD
  • 3T. HolešD
  • 6A. N'GuessanD
  • 8O. KubiakD
  • 30W. NowakM
  • 22T. DiakitéM
  • 23M. SadílekM
  • 20E. AyaosiF
  • 13M. ChytilF
  • 17L. ProvodF
Substitutes
  • 1O. KolářG
  • 39D. JurásekD
  • 42M. KonečnýD
  • 16D. MosesM
  • 40Adam RezekG
  • 15M. E. SuleimanM
  • 27T. VlčekD
  • 4D. ZimaD
  • 10D. ŠturmF
Coach: J. Trpišovský
Mlada Boleslav 4-2-3-1
  • 42V. VorelG
  • 32F. MatoušekD
  • 44O. KarafiátD
  • 3M. KrálikD
  • 11M. HybšD
  • 19D. KozelM
  • 13D. DonátM
  • 20S. JohnM
  • 28D. LanghamerM
  • 21M. ŠubertM
  • 23J. KlímaF
Substitutes
  • 59J. FloderG
  • 26M. ZachovalD
  • 49J. KoláříkM
  • 77D. PechM
  • 14S. GrygarM
  • 17F. ŠpatenkaF
  • 18M. HavranM
  • 9L. LetenayF
  • 5J. HarušťákD
Coach: A. Majer

Form going into Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav

Slavia Praha

Czech Liga

  • D0-0Hradec Králové17 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Zlin9 October 2026

Mlada Boleslav

Czech Liga

  • W1-0Teplice17 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Bohemians 190514 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Slavia Praha141040368+2834
3Mlada Boleslav147432215+725

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav

  • 7 February 2026Slavia Praha 4–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
  • 30 August 2025Mlada Boleslav 1–3 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
  • 2 February 2025Slavia Praha 1–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
  • 17 September 2024Mlada Boleslav 0–2 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
  • 26 May 2024Slavia Praha 4–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
  • 10 December 2023Slavia Praha 2–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav

Slavia Praha

GoalsAssists

  • M. Chytil61
  • E. Ayaosi53
  • W. Nowak51

Mlada Boleslav

GoalsAssists

  • M. Šubert71
  • J. Klíma41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Slavia Praha at 67% and given a draw 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Martin Šubert 15' for Mlada Boleslav, Mojmír Chytil 86' for Slavia Praha. On expected goals it finished 2.95–1.48.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Slavia Praha a 92.6% chance to finish top of the regular season: 94.2% after a win, 91.0% after a draw, 87.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 91.0%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.

For Mlada Boleslav the question was the chance to finish in the top ten, 90.8% going in: 94.9% after a win, 93.0% after a draw, 90.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 93.0%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.