24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc Czech Liga prediction & result

Stadion Letna, Zlin
Referee: Daniel Lovetinsky, Czechia
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Zlin 1-1 Sigma Olomouc.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Zlin, 25% draw, 51% Sigma Olomouc — fair odds of 4.17, 4.00 and 1.96.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sigma Olomouc at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zlin4%Draw92%Sigma Olomouc4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
Abdoulaye Sylla
Prince Mbatshi Mukuba
19'
46'
⚽Vaclav Sejkassist: Michal Beran
🔁Jiří Štefanout: Stanley Guzorochi Kanu
59'
Jakub Cernin
61'
67'
•Abdoulaye Sylla
68'
Abdoulaye Sylla
🔁Marian Pisojaout: Lukas Bartosak
71'
🔁Cletus Nombilout: Michal Cupák
71'
72'
🔁Michal Beranout: Péter Baráth
⚽Michal Cupákassist: Jakub Cernin
72'
80'
🔁Dominik Janosekout: David Tkáč
🔁Tomáš Poznarout: Joss Didiba
80'
David Machalík
90+3'

Match stats — Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc

53%Possession47%
15Shots13
6On target4
3Corners5
1.06xG1.19

Goals against chances

Zlin1 from 1.06 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sigma Olomouc1 from 1.19 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Zlin 4-2-3-1
  • 17S. DostálG
  • 23M. KopečnýD
  • 24J. ČernínD
  • 45Prince Mbatshi MukubaD
  • 8D. MachalíkD
  • 19C. NombilM
  • 27M. KratochvílM
  • 82M. PišojaM
  • 3Jiří ŠtefanM
  • 20F. AppiahM
  • 88T. PoznarF
Substitutes
  • 64Stepan BachurekG
  • 31L. BartošákD
  • 26M. CupákM
  • 6J. DidibaM
  • 21D. GrygeraD
  • 14S. KanuF
  • 39A. KřapkaD
  • 35O. KukučkaD
  • 9D. ŠmigaF
Coach: P. Hoftych
Sigma Olomouc 3-4-3
  • 91Jan KoutnýG
  • 2A. SyllaD
  • 33M. MalýD
  • 3L. LurvinkD
  • 22M. HadašM
  • 14M. SoldoM
  • 7M. BeranM
  • 4Léo BorgesM
  • 39D. JanošekF
  • 10V. SejkF
  • 70A. GhaliF
Substitutes
  • 88P. BaráthM
  • 17J. DembeF
  • 98M. HruškaG
  • 5T. HukD
  • 9J. KlimentF
  • 11H. MikaelssonF
  • 31A. PavlešićG
  • 16F. SlavíčekD
  • 8J. SpáčilM
Coach: P. Hapal

Form going into Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc

Zlin

Czech Liga

  • L0-3away to Pardubice17 October 2026
  • L0-1Slavia Praha9 October 2026

Sigma Olomouc

Czech Liga

  • W1-0Slovan Liberec17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Teplice11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Zlin1403111127-163
5Sigma Olomouc147342220+224

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc

  • 14 December 2025Zlin 5–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
  • 16 August 2025Sigma Olomouc 1–0 ZlinCzech Liga
  • 6 April 2024Zlin 3–2 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
  • 28 October 2023Sigma Olomouc 0–0 ZlinCzech Liga
  • 15 April 2023Zlin 0–1 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
  • 7 January 2023Zlin 2–2 Sigma OlomoucFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Zlin and Sigma Olomouc

Zlin

No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Sigma Olomouc

GoalsAssists

  • V. Sejk63
  • A. Ghali42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Zlin and Sigma Olomouc drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sigma Olomouc at 51% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Vaclav Sejk 46' for Sigma Olomouc, Michal Cupák 72' for Zlin. Sent off: Abdoulaye Sylla (Sigma Olomouc) 68'. On expected goals it finished 1.06–1.19.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Zlin a 94.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 91.1% after a win, 94.8% after a draw, 95.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 94.8%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.

For Sigma Olomouc the question was the chance to finish in the top ten, 93.4% going in: 94.7% after a win, 92.5% after a draw, 91.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 92.5%, 0.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Zlin v Sigma Olomouc has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 27% / 26% / 47% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 24% / 25% / 51%: the biggest move is Sigma Olomouc's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Zlin win24%▼ −3
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Sigma Olomouc win51%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.