Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Tucuman 2-3 Rosario Central.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Atletico Tucuman, 32% draw, 39% Rosario Central — fair odds of 3.45, 3.13 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Rosario Central at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. IngolottiG
- 24L. Di PlácidoD
- 26C. FerreiraD
- 36Luciano VallejoD
- 32J. InfanteD
- 19L. VegaM
- 18R. Ruíz RodríguezM
- 31L. GodoyM
- 10F. NicolaM
- 14A. CaneloM
- 9L. DíazF
- 28G. CompagnucciD
- 30M. BrondoF
- 25T. DursoG
- 5J. FernándezM
- 6G. FerrariD
- 21I. GalvánD
- 27R. GranilloF
- 8E. HamM
- 23N. LaméndolaF
- 23J. LedesmaG
- 32E. CoronelD
- 46Ignacio OvandoD
- 13G. ÁvilaD
- 3A. SandezD
- 88A. RodríguezM
- 20V. PizarroM
- 26G. CantizanoM
- 11Á. Di MaríaM
- 8J. CampazM
- 22E. CopettiF
- 42E. VeronD
- 33A. SotoD
- 9M. RubenF
- 15F. MalloD
- 6J. KomarD
- 24Juan Valentín GiménezD
- 44Paolo GiacconeM
- 18J. FernándezF
- 38Damian Leandro FernandezG
Form going into Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central
Atletico Tucuman
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D1-1away to Gimnasia La Plata9 October 2026
Rosario Central
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W5-0Independiente Rivadavia11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Atletico Tucuman | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 18 |
| 1 | Rosario Central | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 12 | +14 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Tucuman vs Rosario Central
- 5 April 2026Rosario Central 2–1 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 August 2025Atletico Tucuman 0–0 Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 February 2025Rosario Central 3–1 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 August 2024Rosario Central 1–0 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 January 2024Atletico Tucuman 1–1 Rosario CentralCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 20 August 2023Rosario Central 0–0 Atletico TucumanCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Atletico Tucuman and Rosario Central
Atletico Tucuman
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Rosario Central
GoalsAssists
- Á. Di María115
- G. Ávila73
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rosario Central won 3–2 at Atletico Tucuman. The model had made a win for Rosario Central its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Gaston Avila 3' for Rosario Central, Gaston Avila 6' for Rosario Central, Pedro Alexis Canelo 37' for Atletico Tucuman, Ramiro Ruiz Rodriguez 42' for Atletico Tucuman, Julian Fernandez 80' for Rosario Central. On expected goals it finished 1.42–0.76.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico Tucuman a 15.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.5% after a win, 14.3% after a draw, 24.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.1%, 8.5 points higher than before the match.
For Rosario Central the question was the chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A, 39.0% going in: 58.0% after a win, 32.4% after a draw, 19.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.0%, 19 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Atletico Tucuman v Rosario Central has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 32% / 33% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 29% / 32% / 39%: the biggest move is Rosario Central's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Atletico Tucuman win29%▼ −3
- Draw32%▼ −1
- Rosario Central win39%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.