17 October 2026, 21:00 UTC

Botafogo vs Chapecoense Serie A prediction & result

Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
Referee: Raphael Claus
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Botafogo 1-0 Chapecoense.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% Botafogo, 22% draw, 17% Chapecoense — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Botafogo at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Botafogo97%Draw3%Chapecoense0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Tiquinho Soaresassist: Matheus Martins
7'
14'
Kauan Faria
45'
🔁Fernando Augusto Pereira Bueno Júniorout: Yannick Bolasie
🔁Hakim Ziyechout: Cristian Medina
55'
62'
🔁Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveiraout: Rodrigo
62'
🔁Giovanni Augustoout: Max
🔁Allanout: domingos andrade
65'
🔁Tiquinho Soaresout: Danilo
66'
🔁Matheus Martinsout: Júnior Santos
76'
🔁Álvaro Montoroout: Kauan Toledo
76'
82'
🔁Bruno Nunes De Barrosout: Luis Eduardo Marques dos Santos
88'
🔁Camilo Reijers de Oliveiraout: F. Rossi

Match stats — Botafogo vs Chapecoense

51%Possession49%
20Shots9
11On target0
4Corners4
2.41xG0.24

Goals against chances

Botafogo1 from 2.41 xGless than the chances were worth
Chapecoense0 from 0.24 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Botafogo 4-2-3-1
  • 12Gabriel BatistaG
  • 2VitinhoD
  • 5N. FerraresiD
  • 21MarçalD
  • 13Alex TellesD
  • 25AllanM
  • 8Danilo SantosM
  • 22H. ZiyechM
  • 10Álvaro MontoroM
  • 11Matheus MartinsM
  • 9Tiquinho SoaresF
Substitutes
  • 7Júnior SantosF
  • 6C. MedinaM
  • 29PaulinhoD
  • 59Kauan ToledoM
  • 33G. JustinoD
  • 4M. PonteD
  • 91Domingos AndradeM
  • 19Arthur CabralF
  • 37K. BarriaF
Coach: Tite
Chapecoense 4-4-2
  • 98AndersonG
  • 20Bruno TubarãoD
  • 21Kauan Faria GomesD
  • 3DomaD
  • 91Bruno PachecoD
  • 31GarcezM
  • 88Yago FelipeM
  • 27CamiloM
  • 12FernandoM
  • 10Giovanni AugustoF
  • 9Tulio Eduardo Silva De OliveiraF
Substitutes
  • 11Y. BolasieF
  • 16Bruno MatiasM
  • 80Miguel CarvalhoM
  • 23DuduD
  • 4João PauloD
  • 22MaxM
  • 15Rafael ThyereD
  • 39RodrigoF
  • 30Matheus AurélioG
Coach: Rafael Lacerda

Form going into Botafogo vs Chapecoense

Botafogo

Serie A

  • D1-1away to Coritiba12 October 2026

Chapecoense

All competitions we cover

  • L1-4Atletico Paranaense12 October 2026
  • L0-4away to Vitoria7 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro19 September 2026
  • L1-2Internacional12 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Corinthians6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Chapecoense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Chapecoense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Chapecoense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Botafogo34119144653-742
20Chapecoense3449213370-3721

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Botafogo vs Chapecoense

  • 14 May 2026Chapecoense 2–0 BotafogoCopa Do Brasil
  • 21 April 2026Botafogo 1–0 ChapecoenseCopa Do Brasil
  • 18 April 2026Chapecoense 1–4 BotafogoSerie A
  • 27 November 2019Chapecoense 0–1 BotafogoSerie A
  • 26 August 2019Botafogo 0–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
  • 15 November 2018Chapecoense 0–1 BotafogoSerie A

The full Botafogo vs Chapecoense record →

Leading scorers: Botafogo and Chapecoense

Botafogo

GoalsAssists

  • Danilo Santos102

Chapecoense

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Botafogo beat Chapecoense 1–0. The model had made a win for Botafogo its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Tiquinho Soares 7' for Botafogo. On expected goals it finished 2.41–0.24.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Botafogo a 1.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 2.5% after a draw, 4.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Botafogo v Chapecoense has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 51% / 26% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 61% / 22% / 17%: the biggest move is Botafogo's chance of winning, up 10 points.

  1. Botafogo win61%▲ +10
  2. Draw22%▼ −4
  3. Chapecoense win17%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.