Derby vs Swansea Championship prediction & result
Final score: Derby 0-3 Swansea.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Derby, 26% draw, 30% Swansea — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Derby at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Derby vs Swansea
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. Widell ZetterstromG
- 22M. JohnstonD
- 6S. LangasD
- 28D. SandersonD
- 18C. TaylorD
- 20A. MowattM
- 27L. TravisM
- 26R. HedgesM
- 8B. ClarkM
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorM
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 31J. VickersG
- 3C. ForsythD
- 24R. NyambeD
- 11S. SzmodicsF
- 37O. EamesM
- 23J. WardM
- 29O. FrauloM
- 13F. BilbijaM
- 10R. BrewsterF
- 22L. VigourouxG
- 2J. KeyD
- 26F. LissahD
- 23S. WelshD
- 14J. TymonD
- 7M. WidellM
- 4J. FultonM
- 6M. StamenicM
- 30J. Opoku
- 33A. IdahF
- 10Eom Ji-SungF
- 1A. FisherG
- 3J. SeeltD
- 20T. ParenteD
- 46S. EustaquioM
- 44T. WoodwardM
- 8E. JustF
- 35RonaldF
- 9Z. VipotnikF
- 49M. K. YeoM
Form going into Derby vs Swansea
Derby
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Cardiff22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Charlton15 August 2026
Swansea
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Sheffield Utd22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Stoke City15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 10 |
| 6 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Derby vs Swansea
- 14 February 2026Derby 2–0 SwanseaChampionship
- 25 November 2025Swansea 1–2 DerbyChampionship
- 5 April 2025Swansea 1–0 DerbyChampionship
- 27 November 2024Derby 1–2 SwanseaChampionship
- 9 April 2022Swansea 2–1 DerbyChampionship
The result against the call
Swansea won 3–0 at Derby. The model had leaned towards a win for Derby at 44% and given a win for Swansea 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Joseph Opoku 2' for Swansea, Ji-sung Eom 44' for Swansea, Ronald 90+1' for Swansea. On expected goals it finished 0.59–3.33.