Derby vs Swansea Championship prediction & result
Final score: Derby 0-3 Swansea.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Derby, 26% draw, 30% Swansea — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Derby at 44% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Derby vs Swansea
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. Widell ZetterstromG
- 22M. JohnstonD
- 6S. LangasD
- 28D. SandersonD
- 18C. TaylorD
- 20A. MowattM
- 27L. TravisM
- 26R. HedgesM
- 8B. ClarkM
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorM
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 31J. VickersG
- 3C. ForsythD
- 24R. NyambeD
- 11S. SzmodicsF
- 37O. EamesM
- 23J. WardM
- 29O. FrauloM
- 13F. BilbijaM
- 10R. BrewsterF
- 22L. VigourouxG
- 2J. KeyD
- 26F. LissahD
- 23S. WelshD
- 14J. TymonD
- 7M. WidellM
- 4J. FultonM
- 6M. StamenicM
- 30J. Opoku
- 33A. IdahF
- 10Eom Ji-SungF
- 1A. FisherG
- 3J. SeeltD
- 20T. ParenteD
- 46S. EustaquioM
- 44T. WoodwardM
- 8E. JustF
- 35RonaldF
- 9Z. VipotnikF
- 49M. K. YeoM
Form going into Derby vs Swansea
Derby
- D2-2Cardiff22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Charlton15 August 2026
Swansea
- D0-0Sheffield Utd22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Stoke City15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Derby | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 2 | Swansea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Derby vs Swansea
- 29 August 2026Derby 0–3 SwanseaChampionship
- 14 February 2026Derby 2–0 SwanseaChampionship
- 25 November 2025Swansea 1–2 DerbyChampionship
- 5 April 2025Swansea 1–0 DerbyChampionship
- 27 November 2024Derby 1–2 SwanseaChampionship
- 9 April 2022Swansea 2–1 DerbyChampionship
Leading scorers: Derby and Swansea
Derby
- B. Clark2 goals2 assists
Swansea
- A. Idah3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.