Sparta Praha vs Teplice Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Sparta Praha 4-1 Teplice.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Sparta Praha, 23% draw, 25% Teplice — fair odds of 1.92, 4.35 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Praha at 52% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sparta Praha vs Teplice
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 44J. SurovcikG
- 2M. SuchomelD
- 6T. GuddalD
- 25A. SorensenD
- 11M. RynesD
- 28R. MacekM
- 18A. IrvingM
- 17J. MercadoM
- 10A. KarabecM
- 7J. AlcocerM
- 14J. BrunesF
- 47K. HegyiG
- 19A. SevinskyD
- 30J. ZelenyD
- 15V. Vitalyos
- 5S. EnemeM
- 31M. JurasekM
- 24D. HollyM
- 38H. SochurekM
- 29M. VojtaF
- 29M. TrmalG
- 6M. BilekD
- 4O. Vientiess
- 28D. VecerkaD
- 25M. Riznic
- 8J. FortelnyM
- 23L. MarecekM
- 35M. RadostaM
- 12M. CermakM
- 17J. Auta
- 10M. PulkrabF
- 31K. LichtenbergG
- 22L. TakacsD
- 13D. TaradudaD
- 5J. JakubkoD
- 14L. KrejciM
- 16P. KodesM
- 3J. SvandaM
- 37D. MarecekM
- 11M. KozakF
Form going into Sparta Praha vs Teplice
Sparta Praha
- L0-3away to Lyon11 August 2026
- L0-2away to Mlada Boleslav8 August 2026
- W2-1Lyon4 August 2026
- W3-1Zlin31 July 2026
- L1-3away to Zbrojovka Brno25 July 2026
Teplice
- D5-5Plzen8 August 2026
- W1-0away to Slovan Liberec1 August 2026
- W3-1Bohemians 190525 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sparta Praha | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 12 |
| 7 | Teplice | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sparta Praha vs Teplice
- 15 August 2026Sparta Praha 4–1 TepliceCzech Liga
- 12 April 2026Teplice 0–1 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 9 November 2025Sparta Praha 2–2 TepliceCzech Liga
- 9 April 2025Sparta Praha 3–2 TepliceCup
- 23 November 2024Sparta Praha 1–1 TepliceCzech Liga
- 27 July 2024Teplice 1–4 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Sparta Praha and Teplice
Sparta Praha
- J. Alcócer4 goals1 assists
- J. Mercado3 goals1 assists
Teplice
- John Auta4 goals
- M. Pulkrab3 goals1 assists
- L. Mareček3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.