15 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav Czech Liga prediction & result

Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Pardubice
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Pardubice 1-1 Mlada Boleslav.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Pardubice, 23% draw, 25% Mlada Boleslav — fair odds of 1.92, 4.35 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Pardubice at 52% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pardubice5%Draw91%Mlada Boleslav4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽V. Patrak
10'
16'
A. Majer
E. Godwin
18'
🔁V. Patrakout: D. Smekal
33'
🔁T. Solilout: J. Noslin
41'
🔁T. Jelinekout: M. Icha
46'
🔁V. Drchalout: Kahuan Vinicius
61'
🔁J. Tredlout: R. Mahuta
62'
66'
🔁D. Langhamerout: J. Buryan
67'
🔁S. Johnout: J. Kolarik
67'
🔁D. Donatout: D. Mares
Kahuan Vinicius
74'
S. Simek
74'
75'
⚽M. Subertassist: D. Kozel
79'
🔁J. Klimaout: L. Letenay

Match stats — Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav

31%Possession69%
13Shots10
3On target3
4Corners10
1.37xG0.75

Goals against chances

Pardubice1 from 1.37 xGabout what the chances were worth
Mlada Boleslav1 from 0.75 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Pardubice 3-4-3
  • 46V. NeumanG
  • 24T. SolilD
  • 44S. BammensD
  • 12J. TredlD
  • 15E. GodwinM
  • 8S. SimekM
  • 16T. JelinekM
  • 40T. BoledovicM
  • 17V. DrchalF
  • 19M. HlavatyF
  • 10V. PatrakF
Substitutes
  • 1J. SerakG
  • 25R. MahutaD
  • 92B. SlyubykD
  • 43J. NoslinD
  • 6M. IchaD
  • 7D. SimonM
  • 27M. ReilD
  • 11J. ZimaM
  • 9D. SmekalF
Coach: Jan Trousil
Mlada Boleslav 4-2-3-1
  • 59J. FloderG
  • 13D. DonatD
  • 44O. KarafiatD
  • 3M. KralikD
  • 11M. HybsD
  • 19D. KozelM
  • 76J. Zika
  • 20S. JohnM
  • 28D. LanghamerM
  • 21M. Subert
  • 23J. KlimaF
Substitutes
  • 42V. VorelG
  • 27A. KadlecD
  • 26M. ZachovalD
  • 24D. MaresD
  • 49J. KolarikM
  • 15N. PennerM
  • 9L. LetenayF
  • 70J. BuryanF
Coach: Ales Majer

Form going into Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav

Pardubice

  • L1-2away to Slavia Praha9 August 2026
  • L0-2FK Jablonec2 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Hradec Králové26 July 2026

Mlada Boleslav

  • W2-0Sparta Praha8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Pardubice8125713-65
5Mlada Boleslav7421159+614

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav

  • 15 August 2026Pardubice 1–1 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
  • 14 March 2026Mlada Boleslav 2–0 PardubiceCzech Liga
  • 18 October 2025Pardubice 2–1 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
  • 17 May 2025Pardubice 2–1 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
  • 22 February 2025Pardubice 0–3 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
  • 22 September 2024Mlada Boleslav 2–2 PardubiceCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Pardubice and Mlada Boleslav

Pardubice

No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Mlada Boleslav

  • M. Šubert5 goals1 assists
  • S. John3 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.