30 August 2026, 12:30 UTC

Willem II vs Heerenveen Eredivisie prediction & result

Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Willem II 2-2 Heerenveen.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Willem II, 29% draw, 31% Heerenveen — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Willem II at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Willem II4%Draw92%Heerenveen4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁J. Hoogmaout: M. Lemmens
46'
⚽U. van Aalstassist: N. Tjoe a On
61'
🔁E. Gurbuzout: P. van Loon
62'
64'
⚽J. Trenskowassist: D. Vente
69'
🔁N. Courtensout: L. Brouwers
69'
🔁R. Meerveldout: L. Smans
77'
⚽O. Braudeassist: L. Smans
⚽D. Haenassist: C. Twigt
82'
🔁N. Tjoe a Onout: A. Ciranni
85'
🔁C. Twigtout: A. Et Taibi
85'
85'
🔁M. Riveraout: L. Oyen
🔁K. Boogaardout: T. Verheydt
87'

Match stats — Willem II vs Heerenveen

39%Possession61%
12Shots13
5On target5
9Corners7
1.7xG1.35

Goals against chances

Willem II2 from 1.70 xGabout what the chances were worth
Heerenveen2 from 1.35 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Willem II 4-2-3-1
  • 31K. de Leeuw
  • 5H. ter AvestD
  • 3F. StamD
  • 4J. HoogmaD
  • 24N. Tjoe a OnD
  • 8K. BoogaardM
  • 6C. TwigtM
  • 50E. GurbuzM
  • 19U. van AalstM
  • 7J. SloryM
  • 9D. HaenF
Substitutes
  • 21W. van der SteenG
  • 41T. KotteG
  • 2A. CiranniD
  • 15A. Et TaibiD
  • 83M. LemmensD
  • 14J. MathijsenD
  • 48J. van EsdonkM
  • 40D. IglesiasM
  • 22P. van LoonM
Coach: John Stegeman
Heerenveen 4-4-2
  • 22B. KlaverboerG
  • 45O. BraudeD
  • 4S. KerstenD
  • 3M. WillemsenD
  • 19V. ZagaritisD
  • 20J. TrenskowM
  • 36N. CourtensM
  • 6D. ProperM
  • 7M. RiveraM
  • 9D. VenteF
  • 10R. MeerveldF
Substitutes
  • 44A. NoppertG
  • 30T. SchreuderG
  • 28H. PetrovD
  • 17N. HoplandD
  • 23D. BladiD
  • 8L. BrouwersM
  • 14L. SmansM
  • 41J. ScholtenD
  • 11L. OyenF
Coach: Robin Veldman

Form going into Willem II vs Heerenveen

Willem II

  • L1-4NEC Nijmegen15 August 2026

Heerenveen

  • L0-2PEC Zwolle22 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Ajax16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Willem II6024619-132
11Heerenveen613279-26

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Willem II vs Heerenveen

  • 30 August 2026Willem II 2–2 HeerenveenEredivisie
  • 4 April 2025Heerenveen 3–1 Willem IIEredivisie
  • 8 December 2024Willem II 1–2 HeerenveenEredivisie
  • 5 March 2022Willem II 0–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
  • 21 November 2021Heerenveen 2–1 Willem IIEredivisie
  • 13 March 2021Willem II 3–1 HeerenveenEredivisie

Leading scorers: Willem II and Heerenveen

Willem II

  • D. Haen3 goals

Heerenveen

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.