Willem II vs Heerenveen Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Willem II 2-2 Heerenveen.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Willem II, 29% draw, 31% Heerenveen — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Willem II at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Willem II vs Heerenveen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31K. de Leeuw
- 5H. ter AvestD
- 3F. StamD
- 4J. HoogmaD
- 24N. Tjoe a OnD
- 8K. BoogaardM
- 6C. TwigtM
- 50E. GurbuzM
- 19U. van AalstM
- 7J. SloryM
- 9D. HaenF
- 21W. van der SteenG
- 41T. KotteG
- 2A. CiranniD
- 15A. Et TaibiD
- 83M. LemmensD
- 14J. MathijsenD
- 48J. van EsdonkM
- 40D. IglesiasM
- 22P. van LoonM
- 22B. KlaverboerG
- 45O. BraudeD
- 4S. KerstenD
- 3M. WillemsenD
- 19V. ZagaritisD
- 20J. TrenskowM
- 36N. CourtensM
- 6D. ProperM
- 7M. RiveraM
- 9D. VenteF
- 10R. MeerveldF
- 44A. NoppertG
- 30T. SchreuderG
- 28H. PetrovD
- 17N. HoplandD
- 23D. BladiD
- 8L. BrouwersM
- 14L. SmansM
- 41J. ScholtenD
- 11L. OyenF
Form going into Willem II vs Heerenveen
Willem II
All competitions we cover
- L1-4NEC Nijmegen15 August 2026
- L1-4away to GO Ahead Eagles8 August 2026
Heerenveen
All competitions we cover
- L0-2PEC Zwolle22 August 2026
- D2-2away to Ajax16 August 2026
- W1-0Twente9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 40 | -29 | 3 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Willem II vs Heerenveen
- 4 April 2025Heerenveen 3–1 Willem IIEredivisie
- 8 December 2024Willem II 1–2 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 5 March 2022Willem II 0–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 21 November 2021Heerenveen 2–1 Willem IIEredivisie
- 13 March 2021Willem II 3–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
Leading scorers: Willem II and Heerenveen
Willem II
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Heerenveen
GoalsAssists
- J. Trenskow63
- R. Meerveld51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Willem II and Heerenveen drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Willem II at 40% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: U. van Aalst 61' for Willem II, J. Trenskow 64' for Heerenveen, O. Braude 77' for Heerenveen, D. Haen 82' for Willem II. On expected goals it finished 1.70–1.35.