16 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Rudes vs HNK Rijeka HNL prediction & result

SC Rudes, Zagreb
Referee: Antonio Skobic
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Rudes 1-2 HNK Rijeka.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Rudes, 26% draw, 45% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 3.45, 3.85 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

HNK Rijeka at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rudes0%Draw1%HNK Rijeka99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽Samuele Vignatoassist: Toni Fruk
36'
Branko pavic
Lovre Rogić
45+2'
🔁Xavier Cabrita Fernandesout: Vid Seitz
45'
63'
🔁Jakov Puljićout: D. Adu-Adjei
63'
🔁Justas Lasickasout: Ivan Cubelic
🔁Ivan Đoricout: Lenny Ilecic
67'
🔁Saad El Haddadout: Kristijan Lovrić
67'
Vedran Celjak
71'
•Vedran Celjak
72'
74'
⚽Toni Fruk
79'
🔁Branko pavicout: Amer Gojak
🔁Felipe Curcioout: filip taraba
84'
🔁Junior Fernandesout: Jurica Poldrugac
84'
Kristijan Lovrić
89'
89'
🔁Samuele Vignatoout: Noel Bodetic
89'
🔁Toni Frukout: Niko Janković
90+2'
Niko Janković
⚽Noa skokoassist: Jurica Poldrugac
90+4'

Match stats — Rudes vs HNK Rijeka

30%Possession70%
6Shots9
3On target4
3Corners4
0.71xG1.1

Goals against chances

Rudes1 from 0.71 xGabout what the chances were worth
HNK Rijeka2 from 1.10 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rudes 3-4-2-1
  • 95L. RogićG
  • 42M. ZebićD
  • 4V. CeljakD
  • 29S. BralićD
  • 2B. UnušićM
  • 24I. ĐorićM
  • 37N. SkokoM
  • 27Felipe CurcioM
  • 28XaviM
  • 88S. El HaddadM
  • 78J. FernándesF
Substitutes
  • 9Josip BralicF
  • 33J. PejicF
  • 1Filip HoljevacG
  • 7L. IlečićF
  • 14T. KolegaF
  • 34K. LovrićF
  • 26I. ŽutićD
  • 30M. ŠlogarF
  • 44F. TarabaD
Coach: A. Peternac
HNK Rijeka 4-1-4-1
  • 13I. VekičG
  • 22A. OrečD
  • 45A. MajstorovićD
  • 51A. HusicD
  • 34M. DevetakD
  • 6B. PavićM
  • 23J. LasickasM
  • 26Tiago DantasM
  • 10T. FrukM
  • 19S. VignatoM
  • 21J. PuljićF
Substitutes
  • 14A. GojakM
  • 8I. ĆubelićM
  • 99A. TodorovićG
  • 12Domagoj Ivan MaricG
  • 7Y. KabadayıF
  • 77A. JuričF
  • 4N. JankovićM
  • 15Goran GrulovićF
  • 91N. BodetićD
Coach: M. Kek

Form going into Rudes vs HNK Rijeka

Rudes

HNL

  • W2-1away to HNK Gorica9 October 2026

HNK Rijeka

HNL

  • L1-4away to NK Slaven Belupo11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Rudes135171627-1116
6HNK Rijeka125341918+118

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rudes vs HNK Rijeka

  • 2 August 2026HNK Rijeka 2–1 RudesHNL
  • 30 March 2024Rudes 0–3 HNK RijekaHNL
  • 28 February 2024Rudes 0–1 HNK RijekaCup
  • 16 December 2023HNK Rijeka 3–0 RudesHNL
  • 1 October 2023Rudes 1–2 HNK RijekaHNL

Leading scorers: Rudes and HNK Rijeka

Rudes

No player in HNL's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

HNK Rijeka

GoalsAssists

  • T. Fruk54
  • D. Adu-Adjei43
  • S. Vignato41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HNK Rijeka won 2–1 at Rudes. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for HNK Rijeka at 45%. The goals: Samuele Vignato 5' for HNK Rijeka, Toni Fruk 74' for HNK Rijeka, Noa skoko 90+4' for Rudes. Sent off: Vedran Celjak (Rudes) 71'. On expected goals it finished 0.71–1.10.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rudes a 83.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 79.7% after a win, 82.9% after a draw, 86.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 86.3%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

For HNK Rijeka the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 58.1% going in: 63.8% after a win, 55.0% after a draw, 50.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 63.8%, 5.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rudes v HNK Rijeka has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 26% / 27% / 47% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 29% / 26% / 45%: the biggest move is Rudes's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Rudes win29%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. HNK Rijeka win45%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.