26 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Santa Clara vs Benfica Primeira Liga prediction & result

Ponta Delgada
Referee: C. Pereira
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Santa Clara 1-2 Benfica.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Santa Clara, 27% draw, 51% Benfica — fair odds of 4.55, 3.70 and 1.96.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Benfica at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Santa Clara0%Draw3%Benfica97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
Alexander Bah
10'
Marco Alexandre Saraiva da Silva
⚽Luis Fernando Santos Oliveira (pen)
32'
Emanuel Moreira
36'
Pedro Pacheco
40'
45'
🔁Heorhii Sudakovout: Andreas Schjelderup
45'
🔁Rafa Silvaout: Dodi Lukebakio
59'
Vangelis Pavlidis
62'
⚽Vangelis Pavlidisassist: Gianluca Prestianni
🔁Brenner Lucas Goncalves Santosout: Welinton Torrão
67'
68'
⚽Gianluca Prestianni
74'
Fredrik Aursnes
🔁Dani Borgesout: Joao Vasconcelos
75'
82'
🔁Tomás Araújoout: Alessandro Circati
82'
🔁Vangelis Pavlidisout: Jhon Durán
🔁Lucas Soaresout: Léo Jacó
85'
🔁Pedro Ferreiraout: Vitor Hugo Amorim de Assis
85'
88'
Samuel Dahl
89'
Jhon Durán
Guilherme Romão
90'
90+2'
🔁Gianluca Prestianniout: Manuel Silva
Joao Vasconcelos
90+3'
90+6'
Jhon Durán

Match stats — Santa Clara vs Benfica

38%Possession62%
13Shots16
6On target3
2Corners3
1.6xG1.83

Goals against chances

Santa Clara1 from 1.60 xGless than the chances were worth
Benfica2 from 1.83 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Santa Clara 4-2-3-1
  • 1Lucas FrançaG
  • 42Lucas SoaresD
  • 4Pedro PachecoD
  • 21Emanuel FernandesD
  • 5Guilherme RomãoD
  • 6Pedro FerreiraM
  • 41Daniel BorgesM
  • 70Vinícius LopesM
  • 20Tiago RibeiroM
  • 10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves SantosM
  • 7Luis Fernando Santos OliveiraF
Substitutes
  • 17João VasconcelosM
  • 99SorrisoF
  • 19YthalloD
  • 80Tiago Ribeiro DuarteF
  • 25F. MedeirosM
  • 11Welinton TorrãoF
  • 12NenecaG
  • 73Léo JacóF
  • 22VitinhoM
Coach: Petit
Benfica 4-2-3-1
  • 24Samuel SoaresG
  • 6A. BahD
  • 44Tomás AraújoD
  • 2C. LengletD
  • 26S. DahlD
  • 8F. AursnesM
  • 36João PalhinhaM
  • 27RafaM
  • 10H. SudakovM
  • 25G. PrestianniM
  • 14V. PavlidisF
Substitutes
  • 72A. CabralF
  • 88Tiago FreitasM
  • 62J. NetoD
  • 11D. LukebakioF
  • 21A. SchjelderupF
  • 16ManuM
  • 34S. El KarouaniD
  • 1A. TrubinG
  • 33Gabriel IndioD
Coach: Marco Silva

Form going into Santa Clara vs Benfica

Santa Clara

Primeira Liga

  • W1-0away to Casa Pia10 October 2026
  • D0-0SC Braga20 September 2026

Benfica

Primeira Liga

  • W2-0Vitória SC11 October 2026
  • L1-3away to FC Porto20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Santa Clara11632168+821
2Benfica119113010+2028

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Benfica vs Santa Clara

Benfica and Santa Clara have met 7 times in the records we hold, Benfica has won 6 of them to Santa Clara's 0, with 1 drawn.

The record

Benfica won the last one 2–1 on 26 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Benfica610164
Santa Clara016416

Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 26 Oct 2026
    Primeira Liga    Santa Clara 1–2 Benfica
  • 13 Feb 2026
    Primeira Liga    Santa Clara 1–2 Benfica
  • 12 Sep 2025
    Primeira Liga    Benfica 1–1 Santa Clara
  • 15 Feb 2025
    Primeira Liga    Santa Clara 0–1 Benfica
  • 30 Oct 2024
    Taça da Liga    Benfica 3–0 Santa Clara
  • 14 Sep 2024
    Primeira Liga    Benfica 4–1 Santa Clara
  • 27 May 2023
    Primeira Liga    Benfica 3–0 Santa Clara

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Benfica's attack rates 82% above Santa Clara's, and Benfica concede 11% fewer than Santa Clara. That gives Benfica the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Benfica1.620.78
Santa Clara0.890.88

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Santa Clara and Benfica

Santa Clara

GoalsAssists

  • Gonçalo Paciência51

Benfica

GoalsAssists

  • V. Pavlidis113
  • G. Prestianni74

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Benfica won 2–1 at Santa Clara. The model had made a win for Benfica its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Luis Fernando Santos Oliveira (penalty) 32' for Santa Clara, Vangelis Pavlidis 62' for Benfica, Gianluca Prestianni 68' for Benfica. Sent off: Jhon Durán (Benfica) 90+6'. On expected goals it finished 1.60–1.83.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Benfica a 30.7% chance to finish top of the regular season: 34.3% after a win, 26.2% after a draw, 22.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.3%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.