25 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Nacional vs SC Braga Primeira Liga prediction & result

Funchal
Referee: Jose Bessa
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Nacional 1-0 SC Braga.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Nacional, 25% draw, 52% SC Braga — fair odds of 4.35, 4.00 and 1.92.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

SC Braga at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nacional94%Draw6%SC Braga0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Miguel Baezaassist: Song Min-kyu
19'
•Miguel Baeza
19'
Chico Gonçalves
33'
45'
🔁Gabriel Silvaout: Gabriel Martínez Aguilera
45'
🔁Tommy Marquésout: João Moutinho
45'
🔁Jean-Baptiste Gorbyout: Mario Dorgeles
62'
🔁Jovan Milosevicout: Fra Navarro
🔁Markus Jensenout: Deivison Souza Brito
68'
🔁Song Min-kyuout: Matchoi Djaló
68'
76'
🔁Bright Arrey Mbiout: Denis Huseinbasic
🔁Chiheb Labidiout: Danel Dongmo
78'
🔁N. Kaderout: Pablo Ruan
78'
79'
Sergio Barcia
🔁Miguel Baezaout: Daniel de Melo Araujo Junior
86'
Stavros Gavriel
86'
90+4'
Gustaf Lagerbielke

Match stats — Nacional vs SC Braga

29%Possession71%
8Shots20
4On target2
4Corners6
0.52xG1.69

Goals against chances

Nacional1 from 0.52 xGabout what the chances were worth
SC Braga0 from 1.69 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Nacional 5-4-1
  • 1Renato BellucciG
  • 7M. JensenD
  • 33Francisco GonçalvesD
  • 6Matheus DiasD
  • 38Zé VitorD
  • 21W. KokoloD
  • 11S. GavrielM
  • 15C. LabidiM
  • 8Miguel BaezaM
  • 12Song Min-KyuM
  • 29N. KaderF
Substitutes
  • 20Matchoi DjalóM
  • 31D. DongmoM
  • 14Ivanildo FernandesD
  • 13João GonçalvesG
  • 5José GomesD
  • 17F. NavaF
  • 9A. ObandoF
  • 99Pablo RuanF
  • 26Joel da SilvaM
Coach: João Henriques
SC Braga 3-4-2-1
  • 31Bernardo FontesG
  • 14G. LagerbielkeD
  • 22Sergio BarciaD
  • 26B. Arrey-MbiD
  • 2Víctor GómezM
  • 29J. GorbyM
  • 16Tomás MarquésM
  • 11Gabriel SilvaM
  • 10Pau VictorM
  • 21Ricardo HortaM
  • 17J. MiloševićF
Substitutes
  • 20M. DorgelesM
  • 23D. HuseinbašićM
  • 78João CarvalhoG
  • 8João MoutinhoM
  • 9Fran NavarroF
  • 50Diego RodriguesM
  • 34E. TıknazM
  • 7Diogo TravassosD
  • 6Vitor CarvalhoM
Coach: Franclim Carvalho

Form going into Nacional vs SC Braga

Nacional

Primeira Liga

  • L2-3away to Rio Ave11 October 2026
  • L0-4Famalicao19 September 2026

SC Braga

Primeira Liga

  • L1-2GIL Vicente19 October 2026
  • L1-3Sporting CP9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Nacional113171119-810
8SC Braga115241311+217

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nacional vs SC Braga

Nacional and SC Braga have met 7 times in the records we hold, SC Braga has won 5 of them to Nacional's 2.

The record

Nacional won the last one 1–0 on 25 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Nacional205613
SC Braga502136

Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 25 Oct 2026
    Primeira Liga    Nacional 1–0 SC Braga
  • 28 Feb 2026
    Primeira Liga    Nacional 1–2 SC Braga
  • 23 Nov 2025
    Taça de Portugal    SC Braga 4–2 Nacional
  • 28 Sep 2025
    Primeira Liga    SC Braga 0–1 Nacional
  • 21 Feb 2025
    Primeira Liga    SC Braga 1–0 Nacional
  • 20 Sep 2024
    Primeira Liga    Nacional 0–3 SC Braga
  • 22 Dec 2023
    Taça da Liga    Nacional 1–3 SC Braga

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, SC Braga's attack rates 48% above Nacional's, and SC Braga concede 27% fewer than Nacional. That gives SC Braga the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Nacional0.751.19
SC Braga1.110.87

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Nacional and SC Braga

Nacional

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

SC Braga

GoalsAssists

  • Pau Victor51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Nacional beat SC Braga 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for SC Braga at 52% and given a win for Nacional 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Miguel Baeza 19' for Nacional. On expected goals it finished 0.52–1.69.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nacional a 48.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 39.3% after a win, 47.3% after a draw, 52.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.3%, 9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.