Estoril vs Moreirense Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Estoril 1-3 Moreirense.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Estoril, 29% draw, 31% Moreirense — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Estoril at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estoril vs Moreirense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Joel RoblesG
- 2Ricard SánchezD
- 4FerroD
- 6Xavi SintesD
- 21R. JurišićD
- 5A. TsounguiM
- 10J. HolsgroveM
- 12João CarvalhoM
- 99R. GuitaneF
- 9A. CamblanF
- 11N. OmerovićF
- 35S. AmissahD
- 8XekaM
- 25S. AndreouD
- 22Pedro CarvalhoD
- 7André LacximicantF
- 3Fernando MedranoD
- 19Tiago Parreira ParenteD
- 17PeixinhoF
- 44M. RobinM
- 13André FerreiraG
- 76Dinis PintoD
- 66Gilberto BatistaD
- 4Kevyn MonteiroD
- 27KikoD
- 23N. JohnM
- 65Guilherme LiberatoM
- 10Kiko BondosoM
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano MendonçaM
- 19Tiago AndradeM
- 79L. VonićF
- 1AranhaG
- 99MaranhãoF
- 8M. StjepanovićM
- 28Chipyoka SongaF
- 2Leandro Henrique Sousa SantosD
- 21Rodri AlonsoM
- 17Álvaro MartínezD
- 11LandersonF
- 25Afonso AssisM
Form going into Estoril vs Moreirense
Estoril
Primeira Liga
- L1-2away to Academico Viseu10 October 2026
- L1-2Casa Pia20 September 2026
- L0-1away to SC Braga14 September 2026
Moreirense
Primeira Liga
- L0-1GIL Vicente9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Vitória SC20 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Estoril | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 2 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estoril vs Moreirense
Estoril and Moreirense have met 7 times in the records we hold, Moreirense has won 4 of them to Estoril's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
Moreirense won the last one 3–1 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| Moreirense | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 10 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 26 goals, an average of 3.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Primeira LigaEstoril 1–3 Moreirense - 20 Apr 2026
Primeira LigaMoreirense 1–0 Estoril - 7 Dec 2025
Primeira LigaEstoril 3–3 Moreirense - 11 May 2025
Primeira LigaMoreirense 2–2 Estoril - 28 Dec 2024
Primeira LigaEstoril 2–2 Moreirense - 18 May 2024
Primeira LigaMoreirense 2–1 Estoril - 13 Jan 2024
Primeira LigaEstoril 1–3 Moreirense
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Moreirense's attack rates 8% above Estoril's, and Moreirense concede 16% fewer than Estoril. That gives Moreirense the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Estoril | 0.75 | 1.37 |
| Moreirense | 0.81 | 1.15 |
Leading scorers: Estoril and Moreirense
Estoril
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Moreirense
GoalsAssists
- N. John30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Moreirense won 3–1 at Estoril. The model had leaned towards a win for Estoril at 40% and given a win for Moreirense 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Manuel Mendonça 12' for Moreirense, Tiago Andrade 15' for Moreirense, Nile John 28' for Moreirense, André Tiago Ramos das Neves 90+4' for Estoril. On expected goals it finished 2.09–1.39.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Estoril a 53.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 45.2% after a win, 55.9% after a draw, 61.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 61.0%, 7.9 points higher than before the match.
For Moreirense the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 22.0% going in: 15.6% after a win, 21.0% after a draw, 26.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.6%, 6.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.