Rio Ave vs Famalicao Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Rio Ave 0-4 Famalicao.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Rio Ave, 28% draw, 43% Famalicao — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Famalicao at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rio Ave vs Famalicao
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32Vitor HugoG
- 20João ToméD
- 23F. PetrassoD
- 5A. NtoiD
- 17M. VrousaiD
- 90Diogo NascimentoM
- 54G. LiavasM
- 80S. ClemmensenM
- 79M. PatricioM
- 7Diogo BezerraM
- 11J. BlesaF
- 30R. GalčíkF
- 3S. GarciaD
- 39Gustavo ManchaD
- 44T. NikitscherM
- 8Ryan GuilhermeM
- 19M. SelloukiM
- 77D. ŠpikićF
- 9Tamble MonteiroF
- 99E. van der GouwG
- 25L. CarevićG
- 17Rodrigo PinheiroD
- 15Víctor RofinoD
- 3L. RealpeD
- 2Gustavo GarciaD
- 6T. van de LooiM
- 21Tamás SzücsM
- 18R. BeneyM
- 14Mathias De AmorimM
- 7SorrisoM
- 70G. KoutsiasF
- 1I. ZlobinG
- 4F. van BreemenD
- 30V. SerafimovićD
- 10Pedro SantosF
- 33P. SalasF
- 9U. AbubakarF
- 8Marcos PeñaM
- 19Paulo MoreiraM
- 22GabrielG
Form going into Rio Ave vs Famalicao
Rio Ave
Primeira Liga
- W3-2Nacional11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Alverca19 September 2026
Famalicao
Primeira Liga
- L1-4Alverca12 October 2026
- W4-0away to Nacional19 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Rio Ave | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 7 |
| 10 | Famalicao | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Famalicao vs Rio Ave
Famalicao and Rio Ave have met 7 times in the records we hold, Famalicao has won 3 of them to Rio Ave's 0, with 4 drawn.
The record
Famalicao won the last one 4–0 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 3 |
| Rio Ave | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 12 goals, an average of 1.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Primeira LigaRio Ave 0–4 Famalicao - 1 Mar 2026
Primeira LigaRio Ave 0–0 Famalicao - 28 Sep 2025
Primeira LigaFamalicao 0–0 Rio Ave - 10 Mar 2025
Primeira LigaFamalicao 1–0 Rio Ave - 4 Oct 2024
Primeira LigaRio Ave 1–1 Famalicao - 16 Feb 2024
Primeira LigaFamalicao 2–1 Rio Ave - 16 Sep 2023
Primeira LigaRio Ave 1–1 Famalicao
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Famalicao's attack rates 30% above Rio Ave's, and Famalicao concede 34% fewer than Rio Ave. That gives Famalicao the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Rio Ave and Famalicao
Rio Ave
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Famalicao
GoalsAssists
- G. Koutsias50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Famalicao won 4–0 at Rio Ave. The model had made a win for Famalicao its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Roméo Beney 48' for Famalicao, Pedro Santos 80' for Famalicao, Óscar Aranda Subiela 85' for Famalicao, Óscar Aranda Subiela (penalty) 90+5' for Famalicao. On expected goals it finished 0.66–1.71.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rio Ave a 37.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 28.3% after a win, 37.4% after a draw, 42.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.7%, 5 points higher than before the match.
For Famalicao the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 5.7% going in: 4.0% after a win, 5.7% after a draw, 8.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.0%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Rio Ave v Famalicao has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 23% / 28% / 49% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 29% / 28% / 43%: the biggest move is Rio Ave's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Rio Ave win29%▲ +6
- Draw28%=
- Famalicao win43%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.