San Diego vs Seattle Sounders Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: San Diego 2-2 Seattle Sounders.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% San Diego, 26% draw, 32% Seattle Sounders — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
San Diego at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Diego vs Seattle Sounders
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13P. SisniegaG
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 97C. McVeyD
- 26M. DuahD
- 5Kieran SargeantD
- 70A. AlvaradoM
- 20A. GodoyM
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 10A. DreyerF
- 94C. BakambuF
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 23S. VinesD
- 1C. dos SantosG
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 25I. PilcherD
- 3D. ÞórhallssonD
- 6J. TverskovM
- 8O. ValakariM
- 14B. B. ZambleF
- 36David MimbangM
- 26A. ThomasG
- 85K. Kossa-RienziD
- 16A. RoldanD
- 25J. RagenD
- 5N. ToloD
- 31H. DotsonM
- 7C. RoldanM
- 27J. FerreiraM
- 11A. RusnákM
- 13J. MorrisM
- 9D. JoveljićF
- 37S. BrunellM
- 39S. HawkinsD
- 45P. KingstonM
- 90S. GomezM
- 24S. FreiG
- 17P. ArriolaF
- 8C. ClarkM
- 4R. SailorD
- 81M. BronnikF
Form going into San Diego vs Seattle Sounders
San Diego
Major League Soccer
- D2-2away to Los Angeles Galaxy18 October 2026
Seattle Sounders
Major League Soccer
- D1-1CF Montreal18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | San Diego | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 57 | 63 | -6 | 38 |
| 8 | Seattle Sounders | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Diego vs Seattle Sounders
- 10 May 2026Seattle Sounders 1–1 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 29 May 2025Seattle Sounders 1–0 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 6 April 2025San Diego 3–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
The result against the call
San Diego and Seattle Sounders drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for San Diego at 42% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Dejan Joveljić 50' for Seattle Sounders, Sebastian Gomez 55' for Seattle Sounders, Cédric Bakambu 60' for San Diego, Cédric Bakambu (penalty) 90+6' for San Diego. On expected goals it finished 2.41–1.37.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave San Diego a 30.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.2% after a win, 36.3% after a draw, 49.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 36.3%, 6.2 points higher than before the match.
For Seattle Sounders the question was the chance to finish in the top nine, 96.0% going in: 99.8% after a win, 98.5% after a draw, 92.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 98.5%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on San Diego v Seattle Sounders has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 40% / 26% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 42% / 26% / 32%: the biggest move is San Diego's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- San Diego win42%▲ +2
- Draw26%=
- Seattle Sounders win32%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.