25 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Karmiotissa vs Apollon Limassol 1. Division prediction & result

Ammochostos Stadium, Larnaca
Referee: Nikolas Liotatis
Full time0 – 5

Final score: Karmiotissa 0-5 Apollon Limassol.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Karmiotissa, 26% draw, 50% Apollon Limassol — fair odds of 4.17, 3.85 and 2.00.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Apollon Limassol at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Karmiotissa0%Draw1%Apollon Limassol99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽Brandon Thomas
19'
🔁Garry Rodriguesout: Joel Asoro
26'
⚽Alen Ožbolt
30'
Giorgos Malekkidis
🔁Angelos Argyriouout: Ruben Garcia
46'
🔁Jael Pawaridihadjoout: Theodosis kyprou
46'
Theodosis kyprou
54'
57'
⚽Brandon Thomas
🔁Alastair Reynoldsout: Jad Smaira
59'
63'
🔁Ivan Ljubićout: Nearchos zinonos
63'
🔁Alen Ožboltout: Ike Ugbo
65'
Dani Escriche
🔁Nassim Ouammouout: stelios panagiotou
68'
73'
⚽Joel Asoro
🔁Luan Patrickout: themistoklis themistokleous
74'
77'
🔁Bruno Gasparout: antreas shikkis
77'
🔁Josef Kvidaout: Connor Goldson
81'
⚽Brandon Thomas
Jad Smaira
86'

Line-ups

Karmiotissa
  • 26X. TabakuM
  • 8C. YebliM
  • 1N. GiannakopoulosG
  • 10D. A. ReynoldsM
  • 21P. PsychasM
  • 34Jael PawaridihadjoF
  • 9Patrick LuanF
  • 42N. OuammouD
  • 4S. DembéléD
  • 7M. BajunovicM
  • 97Angelos ArgyriouD
Substitutes
  • 57artemis spanosD
  • 44J. SmairaD
  • 99D. PriniotakiG
  • 19S. PanagiotouF
  • 17Theodosis kyprouF
  • 23Alexandre KutateladzeM
  • 20Marios KokkinoftasM
  • 22Ruben GarciaD
Coach: Alexandros Garpozis
Apollon Limassol
Coach: H. Losada

Form going into Karmiotissa vs Apollon Limassol

Karmiotissa

1. Division

  • L1-2away to Krasava Ypsonas17 October 2026
  • L0-3Omonia Nicosia9 October 2026

Apollon Limassol

1. Division

  • W4-2Nea Salamis17 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Krasava Ypsonas10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Cyprus 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Karmiotissa9135620-146
5Apollon Limassol94412111+1016

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Karmiotissa vs Apollon Limassol

  • 18 January 2025Apollon Limassol 3–0 Karmiotissa1. Division
  • 4 October 2024Karmiotissa 2–0 Apollon Limassol1. Division
  • 17 August 2024Apollon Limassol 7–1 KarmiotissaFriendlies Clubs
  • 29 April 2024Apollon Limassol 0–0 Karmiotissa1. Division
  • 15 March 2024Karmiotissa 0–0 Apollon Limassol1. Division
  • 22 December 2023Karmiotissa 3–4 Apollon Limassol1. Division

Leading scorers: Karmiotissa and Apollon Limassol

Karmiotissa

GoalsAssists

  • Patrick Luan11

Apollon Limassol

GoalsAssists

  • Brandon Thomas41
  • A. Ožbolt40
  • Garry Rodrigues24

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Apollon Limassol won 5–0 at Karmiotissa. The model had made a win for Apollon Limassol its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Brandon Thomas 8' for Apollon Limassol, Alen Ožbolt 26' for Apollon Limassol, Brandon Thomas 57' for Apollon Limassol, Joel Asoro 73' for Apollon Limassol, Brandon Thomas 81' for Apollon Limassol. Sent off: Jad Smaira (Karmiotissa) 86'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Karmiotissa a 74.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 67.4% after a win, 75.0% after a draw, 78.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.4%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.

For Apollon Limassol the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 85.2% going in: 88.9% after a win, 83.4% after a draw, 78.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 88.9%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Karmiotissa v Apollon Limassol has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 25% / 28% / 47% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 24% / 26% / 50%: the biggest move is Apollon Limassol's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Karmiotissa win24%▼ −1
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Apollon Limassol win50%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.