19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Brighton vs Arsenal Premier League prediction & result

Amex Stadium, Brighton
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Brighton 3-0 Arsenal.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Brighton, 31% draw, 31% Arsenal — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Brighton at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Brighton99%Draw1%Arsenal0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Pascal Großassist: Charalampos Kostoulas
31'
Charalampos Kostoulas
33'
⚽Charalampos Kostoulasassist: Diego Gomez
45'
Ferdi Kadıoğlu
45+1'
⚽Chema Andrésassist: Pascal Groß
57'
60'
🔁Jurriën Timberout: Martín Zubimendi
60'
🔁Bruno Guimarãesout: Mikel Merino
Pascal Struijk
71'
73'
🔁Martin Odegaardout: Viktor Gyökeres
73'
🔁Christos Tzolisout: Eberechi Eze
🔁Ferdi Kadıoğluout: Costinha
76'
🔁Charalampos Kostoulasout: Georginio Rutter
76'
81'
🔁Bukayo Sakaout: Max Dowman
🔁Chema Andrésout: Malick Yalcouyé
85'
🔁Diego Gomezout: Matt O'Riley
86'
🔁Pascal Struijkout: Michael Svoboda
86'
Maxim De Cuyper
90+1'
90+7'
Declan Rice

Match stats — Brighton vs Arsenal

40%Possession60%
17Shots11
5On target2
5Corners6

Line-ups

Brighton 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. VerbruggenG
  • 24F. KadıoğluD
  • 44L. VuškovićD
  • 4P. StruijkD
  • 21O. BoscagliD
  • 14José María Andrés BaixauliM
  • 13P. GroßM
  • 25D. GómezM
  • 26Y. AyariM
  • 29M. De CuyperM
  • 19C. KostoulasF
Substitutes
  • 12P. DavidF
  • 35M. YalcouyéM
  • 33M. O'RileyM
  • 15I. OsmanF
  • 10G. RutterF
  • 30M. SvobodaD
  • 20CostinhaD
  • 3J. HadjamD
  • 23J. SteeleG
Coach: F. Hürzeler
Arsenal 4-2-3-1
  • 1David RayaG
  • 12J. TimberD
  • 15E. KonsaD
  • 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
  • 33R. CalafioriD
  • 41D. RiceM
  • 39Bruno GuimarãesM
  • 7B. SakaM
  • 8M. ØdegaardM
  • 17C. TzolisM
  • 29K. HavertzF
Substitutes
  • 13KepaG
  • 5P. HincapiéD
  • 49M. Lewis-SkellyD
  • 10E. EzeM
  • 23Mikel MerinoM
  • 36Martín ZubimendiM
  • 56M. DowmanM
  • 14V. GyökeresF
  • 20N. MaduekeF
Coach: Mikel Arteta

Form going into Brighton vs Arsenal

Brighton

All competitions we cover

  • W5-0away to Coventry13 September 2026
  • D1-1Leeds5 September 2026
  • L3-4away to Chelsea30 August 2026
  • W4-0Tromso27 August 2026
  • W4-0Aston Villa23 August 2026

Arsenal

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Sunderland12 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Napoli9 September 2026
  • W2-1Chelsea6 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Aston Villa31 August 2026
  • W3-0Coventry21 August 2026

What these results say

  • Brighton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Brighton had three goals or more.
  • Arsenal won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Arsenal scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Arsenal kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Brighton10712267+1922
1Arsenal10901155+1027

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Brighton vs Arsenal

  • 4 March 2026Brighton 0–1 ArsenalPremier League
  • 27 December 2025Arsenal 2–1 BrightonPremier League
  • 29 October 2025Arsenal 2–0 BrightonLeague Cup
  • 4 January 2025Brighton 1–1 ArsenalPremier League
  • 31 August 2024Arsenal 1–1 BrightonPremier League

The full Brighton vs Arsenal record →

Leading scorers: Brighton and Arsenal

Brighton

GoalsAssists

  • P. Groß44
  • C. Kostoulas32

Arsenal

GoalsAssists

  • K. Havertz30
  • M. Ødegaard30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Brighton beat Arsenal 3–0. The model had made a win for Brighton its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Pascal Groß 31' for Brighton, Charalampos Kostoulas 45' for Brighton, Chema Andrés 57' for Brighton.

How the call on Brighton v Arsenal has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 32% / 29% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 38% / 31% / 31%: the biggest move is Arsenal's chance of winning, down 8 points.

  1. Brighton win38%▲ +6
  2. Draw31%▲ +2
  3. Arsenal win31%▼ −8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.