25 October 2026, 20:30 UTC

Palestino vs Colo Colo Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Santiago de Chile
Referee: Piero Maza Gomez
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Palestino 1-1 Colo Colo.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Palestino, 25% draw, 36% Colo Colo — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Palestino at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Palestino5%Draw91%Colo Colo4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽Marcelo Correaassist: Jeyson Rojas
Guillermo Martin Farré
55'
62'
🔁Lautaro Pastránout: Cristian Diaz
🔁Bryan Carrascoout: Jonathan Benítez
68'
🔁Marcelo Eggelout: Ian Zohar Alegría Pindal
68'
72'
🔁Jonathan Villagraout: Iván Román
72'
🔁G Díazout: Erick Wiemberg
72'
🔁Marcelo Correaout: Maximiliano Romero
79'
🔁Álvaro Madridout: Tomás Alarcón
⚽Enzo Roco
82'
88'
•Maximiliano Romero
🔁Ronnie Fernándezout: Joe Abrigo
88'
🔁Gonzalo Tapiaout: Jason León
88'
Dilan Zúñiga
90+2'
🔁César Munderout: Jose Bizama
90+5'

Match stats — Palestino vs Colo Colo

52%Possession48%
16Shots8
6On target3
4Corners6
1.86xG0.39

Goals against chances

Palestino1 from 1.86 xGless than the chances were worth
Colo Colo1 from 0.39 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Palestino 4-2-3-1
  • 25S. PérezG
  • 7B. CarrascoD
  • 2V. EspinozaD
  • 3E. RocoD
  • 28D. ZúñigaD
  • 5D. GlabyM
  • 18S. GallegosM
  • 17M. EggelM
  • 20G. TapiaM
  • 27C. MunderM
  • 9R. FernándezF
Substitutes
  • 11J. BenítezF
  • 21M. ArayaF
  • 30I. AlegriaF
  • 16J. BizamaD
  • 4A. CezaD
  • 23J. LeónD
  • 8N. MezaM
  • 15F. MontesM
  • 1S. SalasG
Coach: G. Farré
Colo Colo 3-4-2-1
  • 29VózinhaG
  • 2J. VillagraD
  • 23A. VidalD
  • 4J. SosaD
  • 28J. RojasM
  • 8Á. MadridM
  • 5V. MéndezM
  • 54G DíazM
  • 24L. HernándezM
  • 10L. PastránM
  • 9J. CorreaF
Substitutes
  • 22C. AquinoM
  • 1F. De PaulG
  • 42C. DiazM
  • 7F. MarchantM
  • 50F. RaipanF
  • 19M. RomeroF
  • 17I. RománD
  • 6T. AlarcónM
  • 21É. WiembergD
Coach: F. Ortiz

Form going into Palestino vs Colo Colo

Palestino

Primera División

  • D2-2away to Deportes Limache11 October 2026
  • L2-3Universidad Catolica12 September 2026

Colo Colo

Primera División

  • L2-5away to Coquimbo Unido11 October 2026
  • D1-1Concepción13 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Palestino27115113938+138
1Colo Colo2719445930+2961

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Palestino vs Colo Colo

  • 19 April 2026Colo Colo 0–1 PalestinoPrimera División
  • 22 August 2025Palestino 0–0 Colo ColoPrimera División
  • 27 March 2025Colo Colo 1–1 PalestinoPrimera División
  • 20 October 2024Palestino 2–3 Colo ColoPrimera División
  • 19 May 2024Colo Colo 2–0 PalestinoPrimera División
  • 8 October 2023Palestino 1–0 Colo ColoPrimera División

Leading scorers: Palestino and Colo Colo

Palestino

GoalsAssists

  • N. Da Silva82

Colo Colo

GoalsAssists

  • J. Correa186
  • M. Romero81
  • L. Hernández74

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Palestino and Colo Colo drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Palestino at 39% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Marcelo Correa 8' for Colo Colo, Enzo Roco 82' for Palestino. Sent off: Dilan Zúñiga (Palestino) 90+2'. On expected goals it finished 1.86–0.39.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Palestino a 30.1% chance to finish in the top four: 41.8% after a win, 24.8% after a draw, 19.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 24.8%, 5.3 points lower than before the match.

For Colo Colo the question was the chance to win the league, 92.3% going in: 97.4% after a win, 93.2% after a draw, 88.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 93.2%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Palestino v Colo Colo has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 34% / 26% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 25% / 36%: the biggest move is Palestino's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Palestino win39%▲ +5
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Colo Colo win36%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.