30 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

Stenhousemuir vs Livingston Championship prediction & result

Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir
Referee: S. Murdoch
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Stenhousemuir 0-3 Livingston.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Stenhousemuir, 28% draw, 29% Livingston — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Stenhousemuir at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stenhousemuir0%Draw1%Livingston99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽S. Pittmanassist: B. Anderson
22'
S. May
41'
⚽R. Muirheadassist: S. May
49'
⚽R. Muirheadassist: S. May
🔁S. Brightout: G. Buchanan
55'
🔁A. Shinnieout: H. Kargbo
56'
🔁M. Gilliesout: L. Lloyd
56'
63'
R. Muirhead
🔁L. Hodgkissout: L. O'Donnell
70'
🔁G. Stevensonout: O. MacIntyre
70'
73'
🔁S. Mayout: A. Denholm
73'
🔁B. Andersonout: T. Sinclair
75'
🔁C. Montanoout: S. Blaney
88'
🔁R. Muirheadout: J. Wilkie

Line-ups

Stenhousemuir
  • 1D. Jamieson
  • 24L. Grant
  • 5S. Young
  • 19S. Bright
  • 39M. Gillies
  • 17M. Anderson
  • 8F. Robson
  • 28C. Penman
  • 21L. Hodgkiss
  • 20G. Stevenson
  • 10A. Shinnie
Substitutes
  • 4G. Buchanan
  • 7E. O'Reilly
  • 11L. O'Donnell
  • 14K. Bilham
  • 15D. Carrick
  • 22H. Kargbo
  • 34R. Hemfrey
  • 36L. Lloyd
  • 37O. MacIntyre
Coach: Marvin Bartley
Livingston
  • 28J. Prior
  • 22J. Doherty
  • 23B. Kabongolo
  • 5R. McGowan
  • 26C. Montano
  • 8S. Pittman
  • 20E. Danso
  • 39L. Polworth
  • 17S. May
  • 9R. Muirhead
  • 25B. Anderson
Substitutes
  • 14J. Hamilton
  • 4J. Wilkie
  • 6A. Denholm
  • 7T. Sinclair
  • 10S. Nicholson
  • 16C. Palmer
  • 19B. van Hoeven
  • 27G. Carey
  • 30S. Blaney
Coach: David Martindale

Form going into Stenhousemuir vs Livingston

Stenhousemuir

Championship

  • L0-1Dunfermline27 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Partick24 October 2026

Livingston

Championship

  • W1-0Arbroath24 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Dunfermline17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Stenhousemuir158251816+226
5Livingston157352112+924

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stenhousemuir vs Livingston

  • 4 September 2026Livingston 0–1 StenhousemuirChampionship
  • 25 July 2026Stenhousemuir 0–0 LivingstonLeague Cup
  • 21 January 2023Stenhousemuir 1–3 LivingstonFA Cup
  • 10 November 2020Stenhousemuir 0–4 LivingstonLeague Cup
  • 15 April 2017Stenhousemuir 0–1 LivingstonLeague One
  • 21 March 2017Livingston 1–0 StenhousemuirLeague One

The result against the call

Livingston won 3–0 at Stenhousemuir. The model had leaned towards a win for Stenhousemuir at 43% and given a win for Livingston 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: S. Pittman 2' for Livingston, R. Muirhead 41' for Livingston, R. Muirhead 49' for Livingston.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stenhousemuir a 68.4% chance to finish in the top four: 74.7% after a win, 64.8% after a draw, 62.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.6%, 5.8 points lower than before the match.

For Livingston the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 41.8% going in: 50.5% after a win, 42.3% after a draw, 36.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.5%, 8.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Stenhousemuir v Livingston has moved

First published on 16 Oct at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 28% / 29%: the biggest move is Stenhousemuir's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Stenhousemuir win43%▼ −3
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Livingston win29%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.