West Ham vs Derby Championship prediction & result
Final score: West Ham 3-0 Derby.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% West Ham, 26% draw, 20% Derby — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
West Ham at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — West Ham vs Derby
Line-ups
- 1M. HermansenG
- 34J. VeltmanD
- 15K. MavropanosD
- 3M. KilmanD
- 30O. ScarlesD
- 20J. BowenM
- 14D. MukasaM
- 7A. EngelsM
- 10M. SolomonM
- 9J. PiroeF
- 11V. CastellanosF
- 18A. BoiroD
- 58A. GolambeckisD
- 49F. HerrickG
- 17M. KantéM
- 35E. AustböF
- 21K. LamadridM
- 5MoratoD
- 61L. OrfordM
- 2K. Walker-PetersD
- 1J. Widell ZetterströmG
- 24R. NyambeD
- 6S. LangåsD
- 28D. SandersonD
- 18C. TaylorD
- 20A. MowattM
- 29O. FrauloM
- 26R. HedgesM
- 11S. SzmodicsM
- 10R. BrewsterM
- 19H. MeisterF
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
- 8B. ClarkM
- 16M. FuseiniF
- 22M. JohnstonD
- 4D. OzohM
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 31J. VickersG
- 23J. WardM
- 42Raymond OfforD
Form going into West Ham vs Derby
West Ham
All competitions we cover
- W4-2Wolves1 September 2026
- D1-1away to Watford29 August 2026
- L1-2Charlton22 August 2026
- D2-2away to Burnley16 August 2026
Derby
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Portsmouth1 September 2026
- L0-3Swansea29 August 2026
- D2-2Cardiff22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Charlton15 August 2026
What these results say
- West Ham scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- West Ham conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for West Ham.
- Derby failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Derby scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Derby conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 37 | 23 | +14 | 23 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: West Ham vs Derby
- 30 January 2023Derby 0–2 West HamFA Cup
- 31 December 2011Derby 2–1 West HamChampionship
- 26 November 2011West Ham 3–1 DerbyChampionship
Leading scorers: West Ham and Derby
West Ham
GoalsAssists
- J. Bowen77
- K. Mavropanos50
Derby
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
West Ham beat Derby 3–0. The model had made a win for West Ham its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Joel Piroe 6' for West Ham, Edvin Austbö 87' for West Ham, Mohamadou Kante 90+5' for West Ham.