5 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

West Ham vs Derby Championship prediction & result

London Stadium, London
Full time3 – 0

Final score: West Ham 3-0 Derby.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% West Ham, 26% draw, 20% Derby — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts West Ham at 54% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

West Ham99%Draw1%Derby0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Joel Piroeassist: Taty Castellanos
6'
21'
Alex Mowatt
22'
🔁Rhian Brewsterout: D. Ozoh
62'
🔁Oscar Frauloout: Bobby Clark
62'
🔁Henrik Wendel Meisterout: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
🔁Taty Castellanosout: Lewis Orford
64'
71'
🔁Ryan Hedgesout: Mohammed Fuseini
71'
🔁Ryan Nyambeout: max johnston
77'
Mohammed Fuseini
🔁Manor Solomonout: Edvin Austbö
77'
🔁Ollie Scarlesout: Adama Boiro
77'
86'
🔁Alex Mowattout: Corey Blackett-Taylor
⚽Edvin Austbö
87'
🔁Divine Mukasaout: Felipe Morato
90+1'
🔁Jarrod Bowenout: Mohamadou Kante
90+1'
⚽Mohamadou Kanteassist: Edvin Austbö
90+5'

Match stats — West Ham vs Derby

52%Possession48%
20Shots5
7On target0
5Corners6

Line-ups

West Ham 4-4-2
  • 1M. HermansenG
  • 34J. VeltmanD
  • 15K. MavropanosD
  • 3M. KilmanD
  • 30O. ScarlesD
  • 20J. BowenM
  • 14D. MukasaM
  • 7A. EngelsM
  • 10M. SolomonM
  • 9J. PiroeF
  • 11V. CastellanosF
Substitutes
  • 18A. BoiroD
  • 58A. GolambeckisD
  • 49F. HerrickG
  • 17M. KantéM
  • 35E. AustböF
  • 21K. LamadridM
  • 5MoratoD
  • 61L. OrfordM
  • 2K. Walker-PetersD
Coach: Nuno Espírito Santo
Derby 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. Widell ZetterströmG
  • 24R. NyambeD
  • 6S. LangåsD
  • 28D. SandersonD
  • 18C. TaylorD
  • 20A. MowattM
  • 29O. FrauloM
  • 26R. HedgesM
  • 11S. SzmodicsM
  • 10R. BrewsterM
  • 19H. MeisterF
Substitutes
  • 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
  • 8B. ClarkM
  • 16M. FuseiniF
  • 22M. JohnstonD
  • 4D. OzohM
  • 15L. SalvesenF
  • 31J. VickersG
  • 23J. WardM
  • 42Raymond OfforD
Coach: J. Eustace

Form going into West Ham vs Derby

West Ham

  • W4-2Wolves1 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Watford29 August 2026

Derby

  • W2-0away to Portsmouth1 September 2026
  • L0-3Swansea29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1West Ham7421209+1114
22Derby7115613-74

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: West Ham vs Derby

  • 5 September 2026West Ham 3–0 DerbyChampionship
  • 30 January 2023Derby 0–2 West HamFA Cup
  • 31 December 2011Derby 2–1 West HamChampionship
  • 26 November 2011West Ham 3–1 DerbyChampionship

Leading scorers: West Ham and Derby

West Ham

  • J. Bowen4 goals3 assists
  • J. Piroe3 goals
  • K. Mavropanos3 goals

Derby

  • B. Clark2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.