5 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

West Brom vs Watford Championship prediction & result

The Hawthorns, West Bromwich
Full time1 0

Final score: West Brom 1-0 Watford.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% West Brom, 28% draw, 29% Watford — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts West Brom at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

West Brom96%Draw4%Watford0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
Martin Payero
J. Morgan
34'
J. Morganassist: Harry Whitwell
36'
Ousmane·Diakite
42'
45'
🔁Jordan Zemuraout: Edo Kayembe
59'
🔁Albert Eamesout: Soumaula Coulibaly
63'
Edo Kayembe
67'
🔁Othmane Maammaout: Stephy Mavididi
67'
🔁Martin Payeroout: Amin Nabizada
🔁Rabby Nzingoulaout: Jayson Molumby
73'
🔁Aune Heggeboout: Felix Horn Myhre
73'
🔁Chris Mephamout: Nathaniel Phillips
81'
🔁J. Morganout: Barney Stewart
82'
82'
🔁Luca Kjerrumgaardout: Mamadou Doumbia
Nathaniel Phillips
88'
Harry Whitwell
89'
Isaac Price
90+5'
90+5'
Iker Bravo

Match stats — West Brom vs Watford

52%Possession48%
9Shots11
4On target2
5Corners4

Line-ups

West Brom 4-4-2
  • 1M. O’LearyG
  • 25N. GalvesD
  • 2C. MephamD
  • 6G. CampbellD
  • 4C. StylesD
  • 29Harry WhitwellM
  • 20R. NzingoulaM
  • 17O. DiakitéM
  • 21I. PriceM
  • 19A. HeggebøF
  • 11J. MorganF
Substitutes
  • 15Tobias Christopher CollyerM
  • 13M. IngramG
  • 8J. MolumbyM
  • 7F. MyhreM
  • 18B. PereiraD
  • 3N. PhillipsD
  • 9B. StewartF
  • 22C. TownsendD
  • 26K. TundeF
Coach: J. Morrison
Watford 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. RavagliaG
  • 56Albert EamesD
  • 6M. PollockD
  • 4K. KebenD
  • 33J. ZemuraD
  • 8E. BoveM
  • 5H. KyprianouM
  • 17Iker BravoM
  • 22M. PayeroM
  • 7O. MaammaM
  • 9L. KjerrumgaardF
Substitutes
  • 24S. WalkerG
  • 11R. VataF
  • 21Amin NabizadaF
  • 45S. MavididiF
  • 39E. KayembeM
  • 20M. DoumbiaF
  • 3S. CoulibalyD
  • 26D. BachmannG
  • 53James Andrew ClarridgeD
Coach: A. Dionisi

Form going into West Brom vs Watford

West Brom

  • D1-1Charlton2 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Middlesbrough29 August 2026

Watford

  • L0-2away to Swansea1 September 2026
  • D1-1West Ham29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4West Brom7421107+314
17Watford722379-28

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: West Brom vs Watford

  • 5 September 2026West Brom 1–0 WatfordChampionship
  • 21 April 2026West Brom 3–0 WatfordChampionship
  • 22 October 2025Watford 2–1 West BromChampionship
  • 12 April 2025West Brom 2–1 WatfordChampionship
  • 15 December 2024Watford 2–1 West BromChampionship
  • 1 April 2024West Brom 2–2 WatfordChampionship

Leading scorers: West Brom and Watford

West Brom

  • J. Morgan3 goals3 assists

Watford

  • Amin Nabizada3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.