West Brom vs Watford Championship prediction & result
Final score: West Brom 1-0 Watford.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% West Brom, 28% draw, 29% Watford — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts West Brom at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — West Brom vs Watford
Line-ups
- 1M. O’LearyG
- 25N. GalvesD
- 2C. MephamD
- 6G. CampbellD
- 4C. StylesD
- 29Harry WhitwellM
- 20R. NzingoulaM
- 17O. DiakitéM
- 21I. PriceM
- 19A. HeggebøF
- 11J. MorganF
- 15Tobias Christopher CollyerM
- 13M. IngramG
- 8J. MolumbyM
- 7F. MyhreM
- 18B. PereiraD
- 3N. PhillipsD
- 9B. StewartF
- 22C. TownsendD
- 26K. TundeF
- 1F. RavagliaG
- 56Albert EamesD
- 6M. PollockD
- 4K. KebenD
- 33J. ZemuraD
- 8E. BoveM
- 5H. KyprianouM
- 17Iker BravoM
- 22M. PayeroM
- 7O. MaammaM
- 9L. KjerrumgaardF
- 24S. WalkerG
- 11R. VataF
- 21Amin NabizadaF
- 45S. MavididiF
- 39E. KayembeM
- 20M. DoumbiaF
- 3S. CoulibalyD
- 26D. BachmannG
- 53James Andrew ClarridgeD
Form going into West Brom vs Watford
West Brom
- D1-1Charlton2 September 2026
- L1-3away to Middlesbrough29 August 2026
Watford
- L0-2away to Swansea1 September 2026
- D1-1West Ham29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | West Brom | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 14 |
| 17 | Watford | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: West Brom vs Watford
- 5 September 2026West Brom 1–0 WatfordChampionship
- 21 April 2026West Brom 3–0 WatfordChampionship
- 22 October 2025Watford 2–1 West BromChampionship
- 12 April 2025West Brom 2–1 WatfordChampionship
- 15 December 2024Watford 2–1 West BromChampionship
- 1 April 2024West Brom 2–2 WatfordChampionship
Leading scorers: West Brom and Watford
West Brom
- J. Morgan3 goals3 assists
Watford
- Amin Nabizada3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.