7 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Rot-Weiß Essen vs Alemannia Aachen 3. Liga prediction & result

Stadion an der Hafenstrasse, Essen
Referee: Felix Wagner
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Rot-Weiß Essen 1-0 Alemannia Aachen.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Rot-Weiß Essen, 27% draw, 29% Alemannia Aachen — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rot-Weiß Essen at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rot-Weiß Essen97%Draw3%Alemannia Aachen0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Dickson Abiamaassist: Franci Clarck Bouebari Kitsamoutse
5'
9'
Louis Köster
Dickson Abiama
30'
Janne Sietan
58'
58'
🔁Mika Timothy Hanrathsout: Meiko Wäschenbach
🔁Noah Peschout: Nick Bätzner
64'
65'
Louis Köster
🔁Lucas Brummeout: Aiman Dardari
72'
🔁Marek Janssenout: Michael Kostka
72'
Jannik Hofmann
76'
78'
🔁Justin von der Hitzout: Georg Ermolaev
81'
Fabio Torsiello
Luca Bazzoli
82'
84'
🔁Fabio Torsielloout: Kacper Koscierski
84'
🔁Lukas Scepanikout: Ken Eghosa Gideon Izekor
84'
🔁Mehdi Louneout: Daniel Starodid
🔁Jannik Hofmannout: Ekin Celebi
90+4'
🔁Janne Sietanout: Luca Bazzoli
90+4'

Match stats — Rot-Weiß Essen vs Alemannia Aachen

43%Possession57%
0On target0

Line-ups

Rot-Weiß Essen 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. GolzG
  • 37J. HofmannD
  • 15Ben Vincent HüningD
  • 23J. Ríos AlonsoD
  • 19F. BouebariD
  • 16R. ReisigM
  • 22J. SietanM
  • 18D. AbiamaM
  • 11Noah PeschM
  • 14L. BrummeM
  • 20M. JanssenF
Substitutes
  • 25N. BätznerM
  • 32L. BazzoliD
  • 7Aiman DardariF
  • 2M. KostkaD
  • 33Eric VerstappenG
  • 35F. WienandG
  • 43F VasicF
  • 26E. ÇelebiD
Coach: U. Koschinat
Alemannia Aachen 3-4-3
  • 1M. RiemannG
  • 37J. da Silva KialaD
  • 15M. HanrathsD
  • 3Matti WagnerD
  • 17F. TorsielloM
  • 4D. LeonardM
  • 30Justin-Kai von der HitzM
  • 7L. ScepanikM
  • 8L. KösterF
  • 10M. LouneF
  • 27M. SchröersF
Substitutes
  • 18Ken IzekorF
  • 29K. KoscierskiD
  • 49M. PobricM
  • 9D. StarodidF
  • 38V. SulejmaniF
  • 11M. WäschenbachM
  • 20Georg ErmolaevF
  • 19N. BitumazalaM
  • 23S. BajićG
Coach: M. Selimbegovic

Form going into Rot-Weiß Essen vs Alemannia Aachen

Rot-Weiß Essen

3. Liga

  • W1-0away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach1 November 2026
  • W1-0SSV Jahn Regensburg23 October 2026
  • L0-1away to FC Ingolstadt 0417 October 2026
  • W2-0Fortuna Köln13 October 2026

Alemannia Aachen

3. Liga

  • W2-1Preußen Münster1 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Stuttgart II24 October 2026
  • W2-0Hansa Rostock17 October 2026
  • L0-3away to SV Wehen14 October 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 4 matches for Rot-Weiß Essen had two goals or fewer.
  • Rot-Weiß Essen won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Rot-Weiß Essen scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Alemannia Aachen won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Alemannia Aachen scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Alemannia Aachen conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Rot-Weiß Essen138322113+827
7Alemannia Aachen136251919020

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rot-Weiß Essen vs Alemannia Aachen

  • 8 February 2026Alemannia Aachen 3–3 Rot-Weiß Essen3. Liga
  • 31 August 2025Rot-Weiß Essen 2–3 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga
  • 19 January 2025Alemannia Aachen 2–0 Rot-Weiß Essen3. Liga
  • 3 August 2024Rot-Weiß Essen 1–2 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga
  • 16 July 2022Alemannia Aachen 1–3 Rot-Weiß EssenFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

Rot-Weiß Essen beat Alemannia Aachen 1–0. The model had made a win for Rot-Weiß Essen its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Dickson Abiama 5' for Rot-Weiß Essen. Sent off: Louis Köster (Alemannia Aachen) 65'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rot-Weiß Essen a 39.3% chance to finish in the top three: 44.5% after a win, 35.9% after a draw, 32.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.5%, 5.2 points higher than before the match.

For Alemannia Aachen the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 26.1% going in: 33.4% after a win, 25.4% after a draw, 21.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.3%, 4.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rot-Weiß Essen v Alemannia Aachen has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 46% / 26% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 44% / 27% / 29%: the biggest move is Rot-Weiß Essen's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Rot-Weiß Essen win44%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▲ +1
  3. Alemannia Aachen win29%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.