17 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Qabala vs Sabah FA Premyer Liqa prediction & result

Gabala
Referee: A. Aghayev
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Qabala 0-4 Sabah FA.

Before kick-off the model made it 13% Qabala, 21% draw, 66% Sabah FA — fair odds of 7.69, 4.76 and 1.52.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sabah FA at 66%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Qabala0%Draw1%Sabah FA99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45+1'
⚽A. Khaybulaev
46'
🔁J. Bulusout: T. Puchacz
🔁M. Ubochiomaout: E. Cekici
46'
50'
•
63'
🔁X. Severinaout: J. Mickels
63'
🔁Y. Lachaabout: C. Nwachukwu
🔁I. Akinadeout: Bruno Silva
66'
72'
🔁R. Fernandesout: I. Lepinjica
74'
⚽A. Isayev
🔁J. Sierraout: Z. Shakarkhanov
79'
86'
🔁Carlos Eduardoout: K. Aliyev
88'
⚽J. Mickels
🔁S. Shahniyarovout: A. Mammadov
88'
90+3'
⚽A. Isayev

Line-ups

Qabala
Coach: Jeton Bekjiri
Sabah FA
Coach: Valdas Dambrauskas

Form going into Qabala vs Sabah FA

Qabala

Premyer Liqa

  • L1-4away to Sumqayıt10 October 2026

Sabah FA

Premyer Liqa

  • D0-0away to Neftchi Baku9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Qabala11227618-128
3Sabah FA10631226+1621

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Qabala vs Sabah FA

  • 10 March 2026Sabah FA 7–1 QabalaPremyer Liqa
  • 5 March 2026Qabala 2–2 Sabah FACup
  • 16 February 2026Qabala 0–1 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
  • 4 February 2026Sabah FA 0–0 QabalaCup
  • 3 November 2025Sabah FA 1–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa

Leading scorers: Qabala and Sabah FA

Qabala

No player in Premyer Liqa's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Sabah FA

GoalsAssists

  • U. Rahmonaliyev10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sabah FA won 4–0 at Qabala. The model had made a win for Sabah FA its most likely outcome, at 66%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: A. Khaybulaev 45+1' for Sabah FA, A. Isayev 74' for Sabah FA, J. Mickels 88' for Sabah FA, A. Isayev 90+3' for Sabah FA.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Qabala a 69.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 59.5% after a win, 67.1% after a draw, 71.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 71.2%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

For Sabah FA the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 61.2% going in: 63.5% after a win, 58.3% after a draw, 45.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 63.5%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Qabala v Sabah FA has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 18% / 26% / 56% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 13% / 21% / 66%: the biggest move is Sabah FA's chance of winning, up 10 points.

  1. Qabala win13%▼ −5
  2. Draw21%▼ −5
  3. Sabah FA win66%▲ +10

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.