Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku Premyer Liqa prediction & result
Final score: Qarabag 3-3 Neftchi Baku.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Qarabag, 25% draw, 26% Neftchi Baku — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Qarabag at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku
Qarabag
Premyer Liqa
- W2-0away to Imisli FK11 October 2026
Neftchi Baku
Premyer Liqa
- D0-0Sabah FA9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Qarabag | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 19 |
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku
- 30 April 2026Neftchi Baku 2–1 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 26 April 2026Neftchi Baku 1–5 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 9 November 2025Qarabag 2–0 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 19 April 2025Qarabag 3–0 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
- 16 February 2025Neftchi Baku 0–1 QarabagPremyer Liqa
The result against the call
Qarabag and Neftchi Baku drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Qarabag at 49% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Gustavo Klismahn 11' for Neftchi Baku, O. Kashchuk 18' for Qarabag, Gustavo Klismahn 33' for Neftchi Baku, D. Savic 52' for Neftchi Baku, R. Cephas 88' for Qarabag, Kady Borges 90+4' for Qarabag.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Qarabag a 23.2% chance to finish top of the regular season: 27.5% after a win, 20.0% after a draw, 15.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 20.0%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.
For Neftchi Baku the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 15.0% going in: 20.4% after a win, 15.4% after a draw, 11.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 15.4%.
Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Qarabag v Neftchi Baku has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 46% / 26% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 49% / 25% / 26%: the biggest move is Qarabag's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Qarabag win49%▲ +3
- Draw25%▼ −1
- Neftchi Baku win26%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.