23 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum
Referee: Eric-Dominic Weisbach, Germany
Full time1 – 1

Final score: VfL Bochum 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% VfL Bochum, 24% draw, 47% VfL Wolfsburg — fair odds of 3.45, 4.17 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

VfL Wolfsburg at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VfL Bochum4%Draw91%VfL Wolfsburg5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽Fabian Reeseassist: Muhammed Damar
43'
🔁Vinicius de Souza Costaout: Maximilian Arnold
57'
Saël Kumbedi Nseke
⚽Sean Klaiberassist: Gerrit Holtmann
63'
66'
🔁Alexander Bernhardssonout: Alessio Besio
66'
🔁Yannick Gerhardtout: Elvis Rexhbecaj
🔁Koji Miyoshiout: Jarne Steuckers
73'
🔁Berkan Tazout: Christian Theodor Kjelder Rasmussen
73'
🔁Philipp Hofmannout: Daniel Hanslik
83'
🔁Gerrit Holtmannout: Mansour Ouro-Tagba
83'
88'
🔁Muhammed Damarout: Kento Shiogai
🔁Sean Klaiberout: Yigit Karademir
90+1'
90+5'
•Kento Shiogai
90+5'
Elvis Rexhbecaj

Match stats — VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg

37%Possession63%
19Shots14
5On target5
5Corners7
1.59xG0.78

Goals against chances

VfL Bochum1 from 1.59 xGless than the chances were worth
VfL Wolfsburg1 from 0.78 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

VfL Bochum 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. HornG
  • 2S. KlaiberD
  • 15M. SteinwenderD
  • 5K. MetsD
  • 32M. WittekD
  • 34T. MeyerM
  • 24M. PannewigM
  • 10B. TazM
  • 17G. HoltmannM
  • 23K. MiyoshiM
  • 33P. HofmannF
Substitutes
  • 39L. IsbruchM
  • 19D. HanslikF
  • 16T. CasaliG
  • 4Y. KarademirD
  • 7C. RasmussenF
  • 29M. Ouro-TagbaF
  • 28C. PatinoM
  • 31L. SawasD
  • 14J. SteuckersF
Coach: U. Rösler
VfL Wolfsburg 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. WellenreutherG
  • 26S. KumbediD
  • 6H. WahlD
  • 33CleitonD
  • 21J. MæhleD
  • 31Y. GerhardtM
  • 5Vinicius SouzaM
  • 17A. BernhardssonM
  • 20M. DamarM
  • 11F. ReeseM
  • 19R. GlatzelF
Substitutes
  • 30J. ZielińskiG
  • 25A. ZehnterD
  • 7K. ShiogaiF
  • 37E. RexhbeçajM
  • 2K. FischerD
  • 8Bence DárdaiM
  • 23A. BesioF
  • 27M. ArnoldM
  • 22M. AngelyD
Coach: Tobias Strobl

Form going into VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg

VfL Bochum

2. Bundesliga

  • L0-2away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern17 October 2026
  • L0-1Arminia Bielefeld11 October 2026

VfL Wolfsburg

2. Bundesliga

  • W3-11. FC Heidenheim17 October 2026
  • D4-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8VfL Bochum114251113-214
5VfL Wolfsburg115422616+1019

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg

  • 22 February 2025VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 VfL BochumBundesliga
  • 5 October 2024VfL Bochum 1–3 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
  • 20 April 2024VfL Wolfsburg 1–0 VfL BochumBundesliga
  • 2 December 2023VfL Bochum 3–1 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
  • 22 April 2023VfL Bochum 1–5 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
  • 29 October 2022VfL Wolfsburg 4–0 VfL BochumBundesliga

Leading scorers: VfL Bochum and VfL Wolfsburg

VfL Bochum

GoalsAssists

  • P. Hofmann50

VfL Wolfsburg

GoalsAssists

  • F. Reese57
  • R. Glatzel51
  • A. Bernhardsson43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

VfL Bochum and VfL Wolfsburg drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for VfL Wolfsburg at 47% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Fabian Reese 2' for VfL Wolfsburg, Sean Klaiber 63' for VfL Bochum. On expected goals it finished 1.59–0.78.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave VfL Bochum a 20.7% chance to finish in the bottom two: 14.3% after a win, 19.9% after a draw, 23.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 19.9%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.

For VfL Wolfsburg the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 51.2% going in: 55.7% after a win, 48.4% after a draw, 44.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 48.4%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on VfL Bochum v VfL Wolfsburg has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 31% / 29% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 29% / 24% / 47%: the biggest move is VfL Wolfsburg's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. VfL Bochum win29%▼ −2
  2. Draw24%▼ −5
  3. VfL Wolfsburg win47%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.