Valladolid
vs
Castellón
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Valladolid 0-1 Castellón.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Valladolid, 27% draw, 47% Castellón — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Valladolid 1.05, Castellón 1.61.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Segunda División predictions
Model insights: Valladolid vs Castellón
Has the model earned this number?
Castellón at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Valladolid vs Castellón
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Álvaro AcevesG
- 2TrilliD
- 12Miguel RubioD
- 4David TorresD
- 18ClercD
- 8T. OjedaM
- 24S. JurićM
- 21J. PonceauM
- 30Víctor FernándezM
- 23T. AbedF
- 19Adrian ArnuncioF
- 27Iván GarrielD
- 11Yeray CabanzónF
- 10R. ItoM
- 6M. LachuerM
- 13Dani MartínG
- 5Ramón MartínezD
- 28Dani PérezM
- 7Luis ChacónF
- 15Pablo TomeoD
- 13R. MatthysG
- 22J. MellotD
- 5Alberto JiménezD
- 4A. SienraD
- 2Juanjo NietoM
- 8BarriM
- 21Álvaro MartínM
- 14Iñigo CórdobaM
- 18Pablo SantiagoM
- 16A. JakobsenM
- 9Ousmane CamaraF
- 12Lucas AlcázarD
- 19Hamza BellariF
- 11F. CeccheriniD
- 20Martín CondeD
- 27A. GalaM
- 23Varo GarcíaF
- 15I. KostisD
- 24D. Muale NzanzaF
- 7Raúl SánchezF
Form going into Valladolid vs Castellón
Valladolid
Segunda División
- W2-1away to Sporting Gijon8 November 2026
- W4-3Leganes2 November 2026
- L1-2away to Granada CF23 October 2026
- L2-3Eldense18 October 2026
Castellón
Segunda División
- D1-1away to Burgos1 November 2026
- W4-0Sporting Gijon25 October 2026
- W3-0away to Las Palmas17 October 2026
- L0-1away to FC Andorra11 October 2026
What these results say
- Valladolid scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Valladolid conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Valladolid had three goals or more.
- Castellón scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Valladolid | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 18 |
| 2 | Castellón | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 5 | +19 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valladolid vs Castellón
- 8 February 2026Valladolid 0–4 CastellónSegunda División
- 22 August 2025Castellón 0–1 ValladolidSegunda División
Leading scorers: Valladolid and Castellón
Valladolid
GoalsAssists
- Adrian Arnuncio51
Castellón
GoalsAssists
- Israel Suero62
- A. Jakobsen41
- Ousmane Camara41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Valladolid a 0% chance of the title and Castellón 52.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Valladolid a 10.2% chance to finish in the bottom four: 6.7% after a win, 10.1% after a draw, 11.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.6%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.
For Castellón the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 70.3% going in: 74.7% after a win, 68.5% after a draw, 63.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 74.7%, 4.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Castellón the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Valladolid against 1.61 for Castellón. Valladolid's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/0.95 for Castellón.
How the model reaches 47% for Castellón to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Castellón to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Valladolid's ratings add 8 points and Castellón's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Valladolid's ratings38%+8
- Castellón's ratings47%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.