Newcastle vs Hull City Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Newcastle 2-1 Hull City.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Newcastle, 29% draw, 30% Hull City — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Newcastle at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Newcastle vs Hull City
Line-ups
- 21L. HorníčekG
- 67L. MileyD
- 12M. ThiawD
- 4S. BotmanD
- 3L. HallD
- 14Sean SteurM
- 28J. WillockM
- 23J. MurphyM
- 20M. Fernandez-PardoM
- 11H. BarnesM
- 9Y. WissaF
- 76M. MileyM
- 17B. TouréF
- 8A. BambaM
- 5F. SchärD
- 48Miodrag PivašD
- 1N. PopeG
- 49V. SaliaF
- 44K. ThompsonF
- 77M. MillsF
- 19K. TzolakisG
- 2L. CoyleD
- 6S. AjayiD
- 15J. EganD
- 22L. HerringtonD
- 3R. GilesD
- 10M. BelloumiM
- 25M. CrooksM
- 27R. SlaterM
- 7S. ThomasM
- 9O. McBurnieF
- 50M. ChoF
- 12D. PhillipsG
- 17P. McNairD
- 11J. GelhardtF
- 14J. Hjertø-DahlM
- 21E. StroudM
- 29L. Gourna-DouathM
- 42T. IroegbunamM
- 47R. VazF
Form going into Newcastle vs Hull City
Newcastle
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to Leeds14 September 2026
- D2-2Bournemouth5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Tottenham29 August 2026
- D2-2Liverpool23 August 2026
Hull City
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Chelsea12 September 2026
- D0-0Aston Villa5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Coventry29 August 2026
- W2-0Manchester United22 August 2026
What these results say
- Newcastle scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Newcastle failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Newcastle conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Hull City went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Hull City scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Hull City kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Hull City | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Newcastle vs Hull City
- 27 July 2024Hull City 0–2 NewcastleFriendlies Clubs
- 29 November 2016Hull City 1–1 NewcastleLeague Cup
- 31 January 2015Hull City 0–3 NewcastlePremier League
- 20 September 2014Newcastle 2–2 Hull CityPremier League
- 1 March 2014Hull City 1–4 NewcastlePremier League
Leading scorers: Newcastle and Hull City
Newcastle
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Hull City
GoalsAssists
- M. Belloumi32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Newcastle beat Hull City 2–1. The model had made a win for Newcastle its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Joe Willock 3' for Newcastle, Lewis Hall 7' for Newcastle, Mohamed Ali Cho 67' for Hull City.
How the call on Newcastle v Hull City has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Newcastle's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Newcastle win41%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Hull City win30%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.